ACES a 4% yield
ACES Current 590 Target 827 + 40%
11/5/22
1 minute read
Sales declined -6%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-22% 42% -12% 3% -6%
1,276 1,808 1,591 1,642 1,551
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-88% -72% -83% -88% -86%
44 395 156 90 109
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
52 717 204 -179 -255
-16 -26 -26 -24 -34
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
1,848 2,544 2,689 2,476 1,845
1,930 1,677 1,642 1,970 1,602
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
2,208 2,204 2,237 2,249 2,590
9 -5 33 13 -12
550 0 0 0 353
11/5/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 22%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 4% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 4% of market cap
- Latest net cash 2% of market cap
Sales declined -6%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-22% 42% -12% 3% -6%
1,276 1,808 1,591 1,642 1,551
- Sales declined -6% in the third quarter to 1,551 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is -3% now.
- This brings the average to 7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,835 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-88% -72% -83% -88% -86%
44 395 156 90 109
- The cash cost ratio went from -88% to -86% profit from 90 to 109 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -82% now.
- We use a -83% cost ratio to predict a 203 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
52 717 204 -179 -255
-16 -26 -26 -24 -34
- Free cashflow went from -203 to -288 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -34 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 94 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -34 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 161 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
1,848 2,544 2,689 2,476 1,845
1,930 1,677 1,642 1,970 1,602
- Cash declined 2,476 to 1,845 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 1,970 to 1,602 billion rupiah so net cash was down 506 to 243 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -388 billion rupiah equity payout -256 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 958 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
2,208 2,204 2,237 2,249 2,590
9 -5 33 13 -12
550 0 0 0 353
- ACES cumulative capital improved 2,249 to 2,590 billion rupiah with -12 & + 353 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 3,234 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 10,101 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.49 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 643 billion rupiah which means a 16 X valuation. A 22 X valuation gives a 40% higher target price 827 rupiah.
