ACES a 5% yield
ACES Current 650 Target 1,356 + 109%
Aug 5, 2022
1 minute read
Last 12 months cash flow + 6% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital + 5% of market cap
Latest net cash 4% of market cap
Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,644, 1,276, 1,808, 1,591, 1,642
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-86% -88% -72% -83% -88%
117 44 395 156 90
Cashflow seasonally negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-84 52 717 204 -179
-20 -16 -26 -26 -24
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
2,370 1,848 2,544 2,689 2,476
2,474 1,930 1,677 1,642 1,970
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
1,649 2,208 2,204 2,237 2,249
-75 9 -5 33 13
0, 550, 0, 0, 0
Aug 5, 2022
1 minute read
Last 12 months cash flow + 6% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital + 5% of market cap
Latest net cash 4% of market cap
Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,644, 1,276, 1,808, 1,591, 1,642
- Sales grew 3% in the second quarter to 1,642 billion rupiah… our forecasts v sales is -3% now.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict faster average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,975 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-86% -88% -72% -83% -88%
117 44 395 156 90
- The cash cost ratio went from -83% to -88% profit from 156 to 90 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -83% now.
- We use a lower -82% cost ratio to predict a 236 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow seasonally negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-84 52 717 204 -179
-20 -16 -26 -26 -24
- Free cashflow went seasonally negative from 178 to -203 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -24 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 175 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -16 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 204 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
2,370 1,848 2,544 2,689 2,476
2,474 1,930 1,677 1,642 1,970
- Cash declined 2,689 to 2,476 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,642 to 1,970 billion rupiah so net cash was down 1,047 to 506 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -598 billion rupiah equity payout -217 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 1,155 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
1,649 2,208 2,204 2,237 2,249
-75 9 -5 33 13
0, 550, 0, 0, 0
- ACES cumulative capital improved 2,237 to 2,249 billion rupiah with + 13 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 3,065 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 11,723 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.68 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 5% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 815 billion rupiah which means a 14 X valuation. A 30 X valuation gives a 109% higher target price 1,356 rupiah.
