sharpfokus
  • Asjmp
  • English
  • ABMM
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BISI
  • BLTZ
  • BNII
  • BNLI
  • BRMS
  • BUKK
  • BVIC
  • CMNP
  • CMNT
  • DLTA
  • DRMA
  • DVLA
  • DYAN
  • EAST
  • FASW
  • GOTO
  • HEXA
  • IKBI
  • INTD
  • IPPE
  • ITMG
  • JIHD
  • KDSI
  • KIJA
  • MEGA
  • MERK
  • MMLP
  • MPMX
  • MTDL
  • MTEL
  • NFCX
  • NISP
  • OKAS
  • RIGS
  • SLIS
  • STAA
  • STTP
  • TGKA
  • VICI
  • WEHA
  • WIRG
  • WOMF
  • Home
  • BERK
  • CL
  • CVX
  • CVX
  • FB
  • GOLD
  • INTC
  • IP
  • MAR
  • PG
  • PEP
  • T
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • TXN
  • V
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • Stockbit
  • TIRA
  • Meeting
  • MBAP
  • HTUFS
  • 7Steps
  • INTA
  • Model
  • MCOL
  • ESTI
  • Intern
  • Stockbitapp
  • SONA
  • Model1
  • Pdf
  • OBMD
  • PSKT
  • DGIK
  • Data
  • Above
  • IATA
  • mm
  • Untitled
  • Capital
  • Subscribe
  • SharpfokUS
Picture

ACES a 4% yield

ACES Current 590 Target 827 + 40%

11/5/22
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 22%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 4% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 4% of market cap
  • Latest net cash 2% of market cap

Sales declined -6%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-22% 42% -12% 3% -6%
1,276 1,808 1,591 1,642 1,551
  • Sales declined -6% in the third quarter to 1,551 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is -3% now.
  • This brings the average to 7% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,835 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-88% -72% -83% -88% -86%
44 395 156 90 109
  • The cash cost ratio went from -88% to -86% profit from 90 to 109 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -82% now.
  • We use a -83% cost ratio to predict a 203 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
52 717 204 -179 -255
-16 -26 -26 -24 -34
  • Free cashflow went from -203 to -288 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -34 investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 94 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -34 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 161 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
1,848 2,544 2,689 2,476 1,845
1,930 1,677 1,642 1,970 1,602
  • Cash declined 2,476 to 1,845 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 1,970 to 1,602 billion rupiah so net cash was down 506 to 243 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -388 billion rupiah equity payout -256 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 958 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
2,208 2,204 2,237 2,249 2,590
9 -5 33 13 -12
550 0 0 0 353
  • ACES cumulative capital improved 2,249 to 2,590 billion rupiah with -12 & + 353 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 3,234 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 10,101 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.49 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 4% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 643 billion rupiah which means a 16 X valuation. A 22 X valuation gives a 40% higher target price 827 rupiah.
Picture
SUBSCRIBE
  • Asjmp
  • English
  • ABMM
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BISI
  • BLTZ
  • BNII
  • BNLI
  • BRMS
  • BUKK
  • BVIC
  • CMNP
  • CMNT
  • DLTA
  • DRMA
  • DVLA
  • DYAN
  • EAST
  • FASW
  • GOTO
  • HEXA
  • IKBI
  • INTD
  • IPPE
  • ITMG
  • JIHD
  • KDSI
  • KIJA
  • MEGA
  • MERK
  • MMLP
  • MPMX
  • MTDL
  • MTEL
  • NFCX
  • NISP
  • OKAS
  • RIGS
  • SLIS
  • STAA
  • STTP
  • TGKA
  • VICI
  • WEHA
  • WIRG
  • WOMF
  • Home
  • BERK
  • CL
  • CVX
  • CVX
  • FB
  • GOLD
  • INTC
  • IP
  • MAR
  • PG
  • PEP
  • T
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • TXN
  • V
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • Stockbit
  • TIRA
  • Meeting
  • MBAP
  • HTUFS
  • 7Steps
  • INTA
  • Model
  • MCOL
  • ESTI
  • Intern
  • Stockbitapp
  • SONA
  • Model1
  • Pdf
  • OBMD
  • PSKT
  • DGIK
  • Data
  • Above
  • IATA
  • mm
  • Untitled
  • Capital
  • Subscribe
  • SharpfokUS