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ACES looking sharp at a7% forecast yield
ACES Current 1,045 Target 1,440 + 38%
May 1, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -12%
Last 5 quarters
-6% -2% -22% 42% -12%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-83% -86% -88% -72% -83%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
259, -105, 36, 690, 178
Balance sheet net cash jumped
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
269, -104, -82, 867, 1,047
Capital paid improved a 38% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,724, 1,649, 2,208, 2,204, 2,237
May 1, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -12%
Last 5 quarters
-6% -2% -22% 42% -12%
- Sales declined seasonally -12% in the first quarter to 1,591 billion rupiah -13% below our 1,830 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,959 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-83% -86% -88% -72% -83%
- The cash cost ratio went from -72% to -83% profit from 395 to 156 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -82% now.
- We use the average -82% cost ratio to predict a 236 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
259, -105, 36, 690, 178
- Free cashflow went from 690 to 178 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -26 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 200 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -26 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 320 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash jumped
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
269, -104, -82, 867, 1,047
- Cash increased 2,544 to 2,689 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 1,677 to 1,642 billion rupiah so net cash jumped 867 to 1,047 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,274 billion rupiah equity payout -305 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 1,019 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved a 38% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,724, 1,649, 2,208, 2,204, 2,237
- ACES 29 quarter capital paid improved 2,204 to 2,237 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -33 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 3,816 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 17,891 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.69 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 7% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 822 billion rupiah which means an 22 X valuation. A 30 X valuation gives a 38% higher target price 1,440 rupiah.