AAPL super strong cashflow
AAPL Current 157 Target 201 + 28%
Jul 30, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters million dollars
81,434, 83,360, 123,945, 77,457, 82,969
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-68% -74% -67% -61% -69%
Cashflow 27 billion dollars
Last 5 quarters million dollars
24,666, 21,035, 30,863, 18,898 ,27,126
Last 12 months change in net cash -1% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-231,510 -252,972 -272,140 -255,597 -250,700
Last 12 months capital + 5% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
378,054, 404,436, 432,595, 460,946, 494,833
Jul 30, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters million dollars
81,434, 83,360, 123,945, 77,457, 82,969
- Sales grew 7% in the second quarter to 82,969 million dollars 2% above our 81,330 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 86,229 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-68% -74% -67% -61% -69%
- The cash cost ratio went from -61% to -69% profit from 25,010 to 19,442 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -68% now.
- We use the average -68% cost ratio to predict a 19,893 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow 27 billion dollars
Last 5 quarters million dollars
24,666, 21,035, 30,863, 18,898 ,27,126
- Free cashflow went from 18,898 to 27,126 million dollars in the second quarter with 4,234 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 24,481 million dollars 4% of market cap.
- We assume -2,630 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 25,532 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Last 12 months change in net cash -1% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-231,510 -252,972 -272,140 -255,597 -250,700
- Cash declined 27,666 to 27,502 million dollars in the 0 quarter.
- Liabilities declined 283,263 to 278,202 million dollars so net cash improved -255,597 to -250,700 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -109,832 million dollars equity payout 7,704 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -258,404 million dollars in 12 months time.
Last 12 months capital + 5% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
378,054, 404,436, 432,595, 460,946, 494,833
- AAPL 30 quarter capital improved 460,946 to 494,833 million dollars in the second quarter with -971 million dollars from liabilities + 34,809 million dollars from equity & will be 596,961 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,555,836 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 7.9 X assets with a 3 years payback & a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 102,128 million dollars which means a 25 X valuation. A 32 X valuation gives a 28% higher target price 201 dollars.
