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AAPL sales drop but cashflow still very sharp
AAPL Current 158 Target 178 13%
Apr 30, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -61%
Last 5 quarters
-69% -68% -74% -67% -61%
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-69% -68% -74% -67% -61%
Cashflow seasonally lower but still strong
Last 5 quarters million dollars
13,613, 24,666, 21,035, 30,863, 18,898
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-229,514 -231,510 -252,972 -272,140 -255,597
Capital paid improved , a 13% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
348,658 378,054 404,436 432,595 460,946
Apr 30, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -61%
Last 5 quarters
-69% -68% -74% -67% -61%
- Sales declined -61% in the first quarter to 77,457 million dollars -5% below our 81,330 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to -68% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 88,812 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-69% -68% -74% -67% -61%
- The cash cost ratio went from -67% to -61% profit from 34,630 to 25,010 million dollars in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -68% now.
- We use the average -68% cost ratio to predict a 21,401 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow seasonally lower but still strong
Last 5 quarters million dollars
13,613, 24,666, 21,035, 30,863, 18,898
- Free cashflow went seasonally lower from 30,863 to 18,898 million dollars in the first quarter with -9,268 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 23,866 million dollars now.
- We assume lower -4,944 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 21,665 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-229,514 -231,510 -252,972 -272,140 -255,597
- Cash declined 37,119 to 27,666 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 309,259 to 283,263 million dollars so net cash improved -272,140 to -255,597 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -71,817 million dollars equity payout -19,011 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -236,586 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 13% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
348,658 378,054 404,436 432,595 460,946
- AAPL 29 quarter capital paid improved 432,595 to 460,946 million dollars in the first quarter with -1,690 million dollars liabilities -20,120 million dollars equity payments & will be 551,774 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,572,753 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 7.4 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 90,828 million dollars which means an 28 X valuation. A 32 X valuation gives a 13% higher target price 178 dollars.