AALI sales/Cashflow jump back
AALI Current 8,600 Target 18,575 + 116%
10/28/22
1 minute read
Sales jumped 27%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
24% -12% 4% -33% 27%
7,183 6,308 6,581 4,384 5,552
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-83% -86% -87% -86% -87%
849 523 506 332 428
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
1,638 656 223 -1,005 2,235
-299 -506 -182 -291 -338
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
3,874 3,896 3,937 1,957 4,874
9,114 9,229 9,525 8,885 10,986
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-401 -242 -242 508 -491
-1 0 0 0 -999
0 159 0 750 0
10/28/22
1 minute read
- AALI last 12 months sales growth -23%
- AALI last 12 months cash flow + 5% of market cap
- AALI last 12 months Capital -1% of market cap
- AALI latest net cash -37% of market cap
Sales jumped 27%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
24% -12% 4% -33% 27%
7,183 6,308 6,581 4,384 5,552
- Sales jumped 27% in the third quarter to 5,552 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 6% now.
- This brings the average to -4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 6,352 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-83% -86% -87% -86% -87%
849 523 506 332 428
- The cash cost ratio went from -86% to -87% profit from 332 to 428 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -87% now.
- We use a -87% cost ratio to predict a 542 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
1,638 656 223 -1,005 2,235
-299 -506 -182 -291 -338
- Free cashflow went positive again from -1,296 to 1,897 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -338 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 198 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -270 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 559 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
3,874 3,896 3,937 1,957 4,874
9,114 9,229 9,525 8,885 10,986
- Cash increased 1,957 to 4,874 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 8,885 to 10,986 billion rupiah so net cash was up -6,928 to -6,112 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -620 billion rupiah equity payout -1,614 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -4,498 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-401 -242 -242 508 -491
-1 0 0 0 -999
0 159 0 750 0
- AALI cumulative capital worsened 508 to -491 billion rupiah with -999 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter but will be 1,743 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 16,552 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.51 X assets with a 12 years payback & a 4% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 2,234 billion rupiah (vs 792 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 7 X valuation. A 16 X valuation gives a 116% higher target price 18,575 rupiah.
