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AALI a dull slump, but will recover
AALI Current 9,375 Target 19,470 + 108%
Jul 27, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -33%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
5,797 7,183 6,308 6,581 4,384
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-86% -83% -86% -87% -86%
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,057 1,340 150 41 -1,296
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-6,210 -5,240 -5,333 -5,588 -6,928
12 months capital is + 5% of market cap.
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-400 -401 -242 -242 508
Jul 27, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -33%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
5,797 7,183 6,308 6,581 4,384
- Sales declined -33% in the second quarter to 4,384 billion rupiah -37% below our 6,910 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to -4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 9% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 6,003 billion rupiah in the second quarter of 2023.
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-86% -83% -86% -87% -86%
- The cash cost ratio went from -87% to -86% profit from 506 to 332 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -86% now.
- We use the average -86% cost ratio to predict a 557 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter of 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,057 1,340 150 41 -1,296
- Free cashflow went negative from 41 to -1,296 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -291 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 59 billion rupiah 1% of market cap.
- We assume lower -237 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 586 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-6,210 -5,240 -5,333 -5,588 -6,928
- Cash declined 3,937 to 1,957 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 9,525 to 8,885 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -5,588 to -6,928 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -629 billion rupiah equity payout -1,648 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -5,215 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
12 months capital is + 5% of market cap.
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-400 -401 -242 -242 508
- AALI capital from the last 30 quarters improved -242 to 508 billion rupiah in the second quarter. with 0 billion rupiah from liabilities + 750 billion rupiah from equity & will be 2,035 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 18,044 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.60 X assets with a 12 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,342 billion rupiah which means an 8 X valuation. A 16 X valuation gives a 108% higher target price 19,470 rupiah.
