sharpfokus
  • Asjmp
  • English
  • ABMM
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BISI
  • BLTZ
  • BNII
  • BNLI
  • BRMS
  • BUKK
  • BVIC
  • CMNP
  • CMNT
  • DLTA
  • DRMA
  • DVLA
  • DYAN
  • EAST
  • FASW
  • GOTO
  • HEXA
  • INTD
  • IPPE
  • ITMG
  • JIHD
  • KDSI
  • KIJA
  • MEGA
  • MERK
  • MMLP
  • MPMX
  • MTDL
  • MTEL
  • NFCX
  • NISP
  • OKAS
  • SLIS
  • STAA
  • STTP
  • TGKA
  • VICI
  • WEHA
  • WIRG
  • WOMF
  • Home
  • BERK
  • CVX
  • CVX
  • FB
  • GOLD
  • INTC
  • MAR
  • PEP
  • PG
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • TXN
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • Stockbit
  • TIRA
  • Meeting
  • MBAP
  • HTUFS
  • 7Steps
  • INTA
  • Model
  • MCOL
  • ESTI
  • Intern
  • Stockbitapp
  • SONA
  • Model1
  • Pdf
  • OBMD
  • PSKT
  • DGIK
  • Data
  • Above
  • IATA
  • mm
  • Untitled
  • Capital
Picture

AALI sales/Cashflow jump back

AALI Current 8,600 Target 18,575 + 116%

10/28/22
1 minute read


  • AALI last 12 months sales growth -23%
  • AALI last 12 months cash flow + 5% of market cap
  • AALI last 12 months Capital -1% of market cap
  • AALI latest net cash -37% of market cap

Sales jumped 27%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
24% -12% 4% -33% 27%
7,183 6,308 6,581 4,384 5,552
  • Sales jumped 27% in the third quarter to 5,552 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 6% now.
  • This brings the average to -4% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 6,352 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-83% -86% -87% -86% -87%
849 523 506 332 428
  • The cash cost ratio went from -86% to -87% profit from 332 to 428 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -87% now.
  • We use a -87% cost ratio to predict a 542 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
1,638 656 223 -1,005 2,235
-299 -506 -182 -291 -338
  • Free cashflow went positive again from -1,296 to 1,897 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -338 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 198 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -270 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 559 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
3,874 3,896 3,937 1,957 4,874
9,114 9,229 9,525 8,885 10,986
  • Cash increased 1,957 to 4,874 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 8,885 to 10,986 billion rupiah so net cash was up -6,928 to -6,112 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -620 billion rupiah equity payout -1,614 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -4,498 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-401 -242 -242 508 -491
-1 0 0 0 -999
0 159 0 750 0
  • AALI cumulative capital worsened 508 to -491 billion rupiah with -999 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter but will be 1,743 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 16,552 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.51 X assets with a 12 years payback & a 4% yield.
  • Our 12m cashflow forecast is 2,234 billion rupiah (vs 792 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 7 X valuation. A 16 X valuation gives a 116% higher target price 18,575 rupiah.
Picture
SUBSCRIBE
  • Asjmp
  • English
  • ABMM
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BISI
  • BLTZ
  • BNII
  • BNLI
  • BRMS
  • BUKK
  • BVIC
  • CMNP
  • CMNT
  • DLTA
  • DRMA
  • DVLA
  • DYAN
  • EAST
  • FASW
  • GOTO
  • HEXA
  • INTD
  • IPPE
  • ITMG
  • JIHD
  • KDSI
  • KIJA
  • MEGA
  • MERK
  • MMLP
  • MPMX
  • MTDL
  • MTEL
  • NFCX
  • NISP
  • OKAS
  • SLIS
  • STAA
  • STTP
  • TGKA
  • VICI
  • WEHA
  • WIRG
  • WOMF
  • Home
  • BERK
  • CVX
  • CVX
  • FB
  • GOLD
  • INTC
  • MAR
  • PEP
  • PG
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • TXN
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • Stockbit
  • TIRA
  • Meeting
  • MBAP
  • HTUFS
  • 7Steps
  • INTA
  • Model
  • MCOL
  • ESTI
  • Intern
  • Stockbitapp
  • SONA
  • Model1
  • Pdf
  • OBMD
  • PSKT
  • DGIK
  • Data
  • Above
  • IATA
  • mm
  • Untitled
  • Capital