## WINS, only 0.2X capital paid, our cheapest stock

Current, target price Rp96, 702 (+631%)

May 10th , 2021

1 minute read

Sales, down seasonally

Cashflow, higher

1 minute read

Sales, down seasonally

- Sales declined seasonally by -7% in the first quarter to 10 million dollars, which is -4% compared to our forecast.
- This is after a 16% increase in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to -4%.
- We predict average growth of 8% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales to 14 million dollars by the first quarter of 2022.

Cashflow, higher

- Cashflow was positive 4.6 million dollars in the first quarter after positive 1.7 million dollars in the fourth quarter, even with investment spending.
- Average quarterly cashflow is now at positive 3.0 million dollars.
- We use flat investment spending of -0.2 million dollars, which with higher sales, gives a higher average quarterly cashflow of 4.3 million dollars in this next 12 months.

## Sales flat, but still higher, margins up, cashflow positive even with investment spending, de leverage continues, our cheapest stock at 0.2X capital paid, shares to 7X...

Balance sheet, lower leverage

Profit, positive again!

Value, only 0.2X capital paid

- With positive cashflow, the net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -74 million dollars in the first quarter from -78 million dollars in the fourth quarter & -86 million dollars a year ago.
- With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of -1.2 million dollars...
- ...net cash will improve further to -58 million dollars in 12 months time.

Profit, positive again!

- Net profit was positive at 0.1 million dollars in the first quarter from -6 million dollars in the fourth quarter...
- ...as the cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was down to -66%.
- We use the same -66% costs, to predict a higher next 12 months profit of 4.1 million dollars.

Value, only 0.2X capital paid

- WINS cumulative net capital is at +133 million dollars from the last six years, thanks to asset sales.
- At the current market value of only 29 million dollars, based on forecasts it’s only 0.2X capital paid, 0.56X sales, 0.14X assets, 0.20X equity, with a 3% profitability & a 4.2% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 17.0 million dollars. At 1.6% with a huge 0.2X adjustment, gives a 631% higher target price of 702 rupiah.