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WIIM, take a long deep drag
🎯 💨 📈 Rp1,902
Last 12-month cashflow +Rp163bn ⬆️
October 27th, 2020
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Sales
Sales growth accelerated again to +57% from a year, up from +35% in the 2Q & +20% in the 1Q. At Rp562bn 3Q sales jumped 24% from the 2Q & were far above our forecast. Machine rolled grew by 82% from a year ago! Hand rolled grew +30%. We predict that sales will rise +27.5% this 12 months to Rp2.27tn.
Cashflow
With stronger sales, cashflow was double our forecast at +Rp72bn in the 3Q excluding working capital (which was positive too). That’s up from Rp47bn in the 2Q. Investment spending was back after previously turning positive. We assume the same investment spending continues which with our sales forecast gives an average quarterly free cashflow of Rp51bn in this next 12 months.
Sales growth accelerated again to +57% from a year, up from +35% in the 2Q & +20% in the 1Q. At Rp562bn 3Q sales jumped 24% from the 2Q & were far above our forecast. Machine rolled grew by 82% from a year ago! Hand rolled grew +30%. We predict that sales will rise +27.5% this 12 months to Rp2.27tn.
Cashflow
With stronger sales, cashflow was double our forecast at +Rp72bn in the 3Q excluding working capital (which was positive too). That’s up from Rp47bn in the 2Q. Investment spending was back after previously turning positive. We assume the same investment spending continues which with our sales forecast gives an average quarterly free cashflow of Rp51bn in this next 12 months.
2nd fastest sales growth, cashflow rising, cash rising, payouts to rise, shares much higher...
Balance sheet
The balance sheet net cash continues to climb up higher & was Rp420bn in the 3Q, up from Rp337bn in the 2Q, Rp294bn in the 1Q. & Rp176bn a year ago. With our forecast for more positive cashflow & a total dividend payment of Rp160bn, the net cash will still continue to climb up to Rp464bn in 12 months time.
Profit
Net profit jumped almost 10x to Rp65bn in the 3Q from Rp7bn a year ago. The cash cost ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a % of sales has improved sharply again to 86% from 94% a year ago. We use the recent average 90% costs to predict a next 12 months profit of Rp160bn, +32%.
Value
WIIM is a net capital payer & the capital payments are fast rising. Total payments so far are Rp338bn. At Rp932bn, it’s 2.76x capital paid, 0.43x sales, 0.61x assets, 0.83x equity with a 14.3% profitability & forecast 17% yield! Our cashflow forecast is Rp204bn. At 1.6% with an extremely conservative 0.3x adjustment the target price is a much higher Rp1,902.
The balance sheet net cash continues to climb up higher & was Rp420bn in the 3Q, up from Rp337bn in the 2Q, Rp294bn in the 1Q. & Rp176bn a year ago. With our forecast for more positive cashflow & a total dividend payment of Rp160bn, the net cash will still continue to climb up to Rp464bn in 12 months time.
Profit
Net profit jumped almost 10x to Rp65bn in the 3Q from Rp7bn a year ago. The cash cost ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a % of sales has improved sharply again to 86% from 94% a year ago. We use the recent average 90% costs to predict a next 12 months profit of Rp160bn, +32%.
Value
WIIM is a net capital payer & the capital payments are fast rising. Total payments so far are Rp338bn. At Rp932bn, it’s 2.76x capital paid, 0.43x sales, 0.61x assets, 0.83x equity with a 14.3% profitability & forecast 17% yield! Our cashflow forecast is Rp204bn. At 1.6% with an extremely conservative 0.3x adjustment the target price is a much higher Rp1,902.
