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WIIM, A 17% yield forecast
Current, target price 570, 2,228 (+291%)
July 30th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales up
Costs up
1 minute read
Sales up
- Sales were up 6% in the second quarter to 606 billion rupiah which is very slightly higher than our forecast 605 billion rupiah…
- Average sales growth for the last 12 months is now 8%.
- We predict average growth of 4% in the next 12 months to bring sales to 713 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2022.
Costs up
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was up to -93% & profit was down to 24 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Average quarterly costs are -89% & average profit 48 billion rupiah.
- We use a -90% cost ratio to predict a 55 billion rupiah profit by the second quarter 2022.
Cashflow higher again
Balance sheet lower net cash
A 17% yield forecast
- But cashflow jumped back to 96 billion rupiah in the second quarter on working capital with -7 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is now 58 billion rupiah.
- We use the same -7 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a higher free cashflow of 63 billion rupiah in the second quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet lower net cash
- With positive cashflow, cash increased from 431 to 528 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities also increased from 350 to 458 billion rupiah so net cash declined from 81 to 70 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming a -208 billion rupiah equity payout, net cash will be 104 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
A 17% yield forecast
- WIIM capital paid from the last six years increased slightly to 355 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- At the current market value of 1,197 billion rupiah, based on our forecasts, it’s at 0.44X sales, 0.72X assets with a 17% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 234 billion rupiah. At 20X (a 5% yield) this gives a 291% higher target price of 2,228 rupiah.
