Other stocks here
WEGE, cheap with a 3.3% yield
Current, target price Rp198, 405 (+105%)
May 28th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales, up again!
Cashflow, to turn positive
1 minute read
Sales, up again!
- Sales increased unseasonably by 16% in the first quarter to 779 billion rupiah, which is +10% compared to our forecast.
- This is after a 59% increase in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to 2%.
- We predict average growth of 6% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales to 969 billion rupiah by the first quarter of 2022.
Cashflow, to turn positive
- Cashflow was negative -791 billion rupiah in the first quarter after positive 542 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter on working capital.
- Average quarterly cashflow is now negative -116 billion rupiah.
- We use investment spending of -19 billion rupiah, which with higher sales, gives a positive average quarterly cashflow of 39 billion rupiah in this next 12 months.
Sales up again, margins recovering, cashflow & capital paid to turn positive, cheap & with a 3.3% yield, shares to double …
Balance sheet, higher leverage
Profit, margins recovering
Value, cheap with 3.3% yield
- With negative cashflow, the net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -2,818 billion rupiah in the first quarter from -2,379 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter & -2,848 billion rupiah a year ago.
- With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of -63 billion rupiah...
- ...net leverage will be -2,726 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Profit, margins recovering
- Net profit was 2X higher at 53 billion rupiah in the first quarter from 25 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter as..,.
- … the cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was down to -94%.
- We use the same -94% costs, to predict a higher next 12 months profit of 251 billion rupiah.
Value, cheap with 3.3% yield
- WEGE cumulative net capital is at -553 billion rupiah from the last four years, & will now turn capital payer .
- At the current market value of 1,933 billion rupiah, based on forecasts it’s 12.07X capital paid, 0.51X sales, 0.37X assets, 0.79X equity, with a 10.3% profitability & a 3.3% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 155 billion rupiah. At 1.6% with a 0.4X adjustment, gives a 105% higher target price of 405 rupiah.
