Other stocks here
UNVR, much better cashflow
Current, target price 5,025, 10,271 (+104%)
July 22nd, 2021
1 minute read
Sales, down again
Costs, higher
1 minute read
Sales, down again
- Sales declined by -4% in the second quarter to 9,895 billion rupiah which is below our forecast 10,488 billion rupiah.
- This brings the average quarterly growth to -2%, ouch!
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales back to 10,814 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2022.
Costs, higher
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was up to -84% in the second quarter & profit was down to 1,348 billion rupiah.
- Average quarterly costs are now at -82%.
- We use the lower -82% costs to predict a rebound to 1,739 billion rupiah net profit in the second quarter of 2022.
Cashflow, much better
Balance sheet, higher leverage
Value, a 4% yield
- Cashflow was much better up to 2,339 billion rupiah with investment spending of -101 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is now at 1,647 billion rupiah.
- We use the same -101 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a rebound to 1,834 billion rupiah cashflow in the second quarter 2022.
Balance sheet, higher leverage
- With dividends, cash declined from 590 to 526 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased from 15,085 to 16,260 billion rupiah so net cash worsened from -14,495 to -15,734 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming there’s a -6,744 billion rupiah equity payout, net cash will improve to -15,104 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Value, a 4% yield
- UNVR capital from the last six years increased to 42,776 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- At the current market value of 191,700 billion rupiah, based on our forecasts, it’s at 4.6X sales & 9.8X assets with a 4% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 7,124 billion rupiah. At 55X (1.8% yield), this gives a 104% higher target price of 10,271 rupiah.
