Other stocks here
UNVR, a 72% higher target price
Current, target price 5,000, 8,603 (72%)
October 22nd, 2021
1 minute read
Sales decline slightly
Costs flat
1 minute read
Sales decline slightly
- Sales declined slightly by -0.4% in the third quarter to 9,853 billion rupiah which is below our forecast 10,191 billion rupiah.
- This brings the average quarterly growth to -2%.
- We predict average growth of plus 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 10,455 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs flat
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -84% in the third quarter & profit declined slightly to 1,333 billion rupiah.
- Cashflow costs are now at -81%.
- We use the last 12 month average -82% costs to predict a 1,584 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow avenge 1.7 trillion rupiah
Balance sheet, lower leverage
Value, a 72% higher target price
- Cashflow was lower at 1,754 billion rupiah with investment spending of -111 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is now at 1,734 billion rupiah.
- We use the same -111 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 1,691 billion rupiah cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, lower leverage
- Cash increased from 526 to 542 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined from 16,260 to 14,881 billion rupiah so net cash improved from -15,734 to -14,339 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -6,137 billion rupiah equity payout, net cash will be -13,685 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Value, a 72% higher target price
- UNVR capital from the last six years increased to 44,728 billion rupiah in the third quarter & will be 48,758 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
- At the current market value of 190,800 billion rupiah, based on our forecasts, it’s at 9.8X assets with a 3 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 6,566 billion rupiah which is a 29X valuation. At a 50X valuation gives a 72% higher target price of 8,603 rupiah.
