UCID, payouts rising fast
Target price Rp5,611
Last 12-month cashflow +Rp 964 billion
February 23rd,, 2021
1 minute read
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- Sales grew +7% in the fourth quarter to Rp 2.23 trillion after 0% in the third quarter & +1% in the second. Sales were 5% above forecast.
- Average quarterly growth is at 0%. We expect growth to pick up to +3% a quarter in this next 12 months...
- ... & sales to reach Rp 2.53 trillion by the fourth quarter 2021.
- Cashflow was very strong again at Rp 374 billion in the fourth quarter after Rp 671 billion in the third. Average quarterly Cashflow is Rp 241 billion.
- Investment spending was higher Rp 250 billion, but we use the average Rp 42 billion spending...
- ...which with higher sales gives an average quarterly Cashflow, Rp 187 billion in this next 12 months.
Sales above forecast, strong cashflow, capital payouts rising fast, higher target price...
- The balance sheet net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was at -Rp 1.72 trillion in the fourth quarter from -Rp 2.27 trillion in the third quarter & -Rp 2 trillion a year ago.
- With our forecast positive cashflow & a dividend payout of Rp 336 billion...
- ...the net cash will improve to -Rp 1.31 trillion in 12 months time.
- Net profit was Rp 112 billion in the fourth quarter after Rp 236 billion in the third quarter.
- The cash costs ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was higher at 90%.
- We use the same 90% cost ratio to predict the next 12 months profit will be higher at Rp 479 billion.
- UCID has paid out Rp 1.5 trillion of capital in the last five years.
- At the current market value of Rp 6.13 trillion, it’s 4X capital paid, 0.66X sales, 0.35X assets, 1.32X equity with a 10% profitably & a 5.5% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is Rp 746 billion. At 1.6% with a 0.5X adjustment, gives a higher target price Rp5,611.