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UBER, sales back up +40%
🎯 🚕 📈 USD58.6
Last 12-month cashflow -USD 7.7 billion ⬇️
November 29th, 2020
1 minute read
Sales
After two negative growth quarters, sales bounced back up +40% in the third quarter from the second. At USD 3.13 billion, sales were 24% above our forecast. Sales are now down by -18% from a year ago. We expect this recovery to continue and for sales to rise back to USD 3.98 billion by the third quarter of next year, 2021.
Cashflow
Cashflow was less negative in the third quarter -USD 1.2 billion after -USD 1.8 billion in the second quarter, -USD 2.6 billion in the first. This is because investment spending has slowed down. We expect investment spending will come below USD l00 million and this combined with higher sales will bring free Cashflow to - USD 30 million by third quarter 2021.
1 minute read
Sales
After two negative growth quarters, sales bounced back up +40% in the third quarter from the second. At USD 3.13 billion, sales were 24% above our forecast. Sales are now down by -18% from a year ago. We expect this recovery to continue and for sales to rise back to USD 3.98 billion by the third quarter of next year, 2021.
Cashflow
Cashflow was less negative in the third quarter -USD 1.2 billion after -USD 1.8 billion in the second quarter, -USD 2.6 billion in the first. This is because investment spending has slowed down. We expect investment spending will come below USD l00 million and this combined with higher sales will bring free Cashflow to - USD 30 million by third quarter 2021.
Sales to climb back to $4bn, heading to cashflow, price to sales valuation, higher target price...
Balance sheet
Because of the investment spending and resulting negative cashflow, the balance sheet in just 12 months has gone from a net cash of USD 5.3 billion to a net debt of USD 2.2 billion in the third quarter. With our forecast for still more negative Cashflow and assuming there's no dividend payment, then the net debt will rise even further to USD 3.5 billion in 12 months time.
Profit
The net loss has also improved to -USD 1.1 billion in the third quarter from -USD 1.8 billion in the second and -USD 2.9 billion in the first. The cash costs ratio of net profit add back non-cash costs minus sales as a percentage of sales was at 128%. We use a fixed quarterly cast USD 3.95 billion to predict a much lower next months loss of -USD 2.19 billion.
Value
UBER has raised USD 14.1 billion of capital in the last three years and will continue to raise more. At USD 89.5 billion current value, it’s 6.06x sales, 3.2x assets, 11.19x equity, with no profitability or yield yet. For valuation the next 12 months af sales which is USD 14.76 billion with a seven times multiple, which gives a slightly higher target price of USD58.6.
Because of the investment spending and resulting negative cashflow, the balance sheet in just 12 months has gone from a net cash of USD 5.3 billion to a net debt of USD 2.2 billion in the third quarter. With our forecast for still more negative Cashflow and assuming there's no dividend payment, then the net debt will rise even further to USD 3.5 billion in 12 months time.
Profit
The net loss has also improved to -USD 1.1 billion in the third quarter from -USD 1.8 billion in the second and -USD 2.9 billion in the first. The cash costs ratio of net profit add back non-cash costs minus sales as a percentage of sales was at 128%. We use a fixed quarterly cast USD 3.95 billion to predict a much lower next months loss of -USD 2.19 billion.
Value
UBER has raised USD 14.1 billion of capital in the last three years and will continue to raise more. At USD 89.5 billion current value, it’s 6.06x sales, 3.2x assets, 11.19x equity, with no profitability or yield yet. For valuation the next 12 months af sales which is USD 14.76 billion with a seven times multiple, which gives a slightly higher target price of USD58.6.
