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TURI, margins up sharply
Current, target price Rp1,210, 3,908 (223%)

April 28th , 2021
1 minute read

Sales, up again
  • Sales increased by another 23% in the first quarter to 2,640 billion rupiah, which is +3% compared to our forecast.
  • This is after a 24% increase in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to 5%.
  • We predict average growth of another 5% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales to 3,136 billion rupiah by the first quarter of 2022.

Cashflow, lower
  • Cashflow was down to 82 billion rupiah in the first quarter from 317 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • Average quarterly cashflow is now at 249 billion rupiah.
  • We use flat investment spending of -5 billion rupiah, which with higher sales, gives an average quarterly cashflow of 174 billion rupiah in this next 12 months.

Sales up strongly again, strong cashflow, heading to net cash, 223% higher target price...

Balance sheet, de leveraging
  • With positive cashflow, the net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -892 billion rupiah in the first quarter from -941 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter & -1,799 billion rupiah a year ago.
  • With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of -135 billion rupiah...
  • ...net cash will improve to -329 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Profit, sharply higher margins
  • Net profit was positive at 96 billion rupiah in the first quarter from -85 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • The cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was down sharply to -94%.
  • We use the same -94% costs, to predict a much higher next 12 months profit of 450 billion rupiah.

Value, 223% upside
  • TURI cumulative net capital is at +834 billion rupiah from the last six years.
  • At the current market value of 6,751 billion rupiah, based on forecasts it’s 4.95X capital paid, 0.58X sales, 1.12X assets, 1.57X equity, with a 10.5% profitability & a 2.0% yield.
  • Our free cashflow forecast is 698 billion rupiah. At 1.6% with a 0.5X adjustment, gives a 223% higher target price of 3,908 rupiah.