Other stocks here
TURI, a 44% higher Target price
Current 1,380 Target 1,983 +44%
November 9th 2021
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
Costs back to normal
Cashflow negative
Balance sheet, higher leverage
Valuation, a 44% higher target price
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
- Sales grew 2% in the third quarter to 3,037 billion rupiah vs our 2,996 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 16% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,778 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs back to normal
- The cash cost ratio was back to normal at -95% in the third quarter giving a 152 billion rupiah net profit.
- The Cashflow cost ratio is much higher at -106% now.
- We use the same -95% cost ratio to predict a 130 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow negative
- Free cashflow was negative -219 billion rupiah in the third quarter with working capital & a slightly higher -25 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 63 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -25 billion rupiah investment gains which with higher sales gives a higher 150 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, higher leverage
- Cash declined from 1,352 to 1,032 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined from 2,260 to 2,148 billion rupiah so net cash worsened from -908 to -1,116 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -142 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be a better -704 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, a 44% higher target price
- TURI capital from the last 27 quarters was 890 billion rupiah in the third quarter & will be 1,430 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 7,700 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.22 X assets with a 10 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 553 billion rupiah which means an 14 X valuation. A 20 X valuation gives a 44% higher target price of 1,983 rupiah.
