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TSPC, a 40% higher target price
Current 1,475 Target 2,071 +40%
November 11th 2021
1 minute read
Sales grew 4%
Costs down 1 point
Cashflow positive again
Balance sheet turning net cash
Valuation, a 40% higher target price
1 minute read
Sales grew 4%
- Sales grew 4% in the third quarter to 2,860 billion rupiah vs our 2,796 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,245 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs down 1 point
- The cash cost ratio was 1 point lower at -92% in the third quarter giving a 145 billion rupiah net profit.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -93% now.
- We use the latest -92% cost ratio to predict a 167 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow positive again
- Free cashflow was positive again 284 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -55 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 111 billion rupiah now.
- We assume higher -97 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 123 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet turning net cash
- Cash declined from 2,722 to 2,689 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined from 3,063 to 2,924 billion rupiah so net cash improved from -341 to -235 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -289 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be plus 97 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, a 40% higher target price
- TSPC capital from the last 23 quarters was 2X higher at 558 billion rupiah in the third quarter & will be -1,037 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 6,637 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.68 X assets with a 13 years payback & a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 548 billion rupiah which means an 12 X valuation. A 17 X valuation gives a 40% higher target price of 2,071 rupiah.
