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TPIA, turning capital payer
Current, target price Rp7,550, 17,425 (+131%)
31st, 2021
1 minute read
Sales, up again
Cashflow, average rising
1 minute read
Sales, up again
- Sales increased again by 11% in the first quarter to 598 million dollars, which is +9% compared to our forecast.
- This is after a 26% increase in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to 8%.
- We predict average growth of 5% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales to 709 million dollars by the first quarter of 2022.
Cashflow, average rising
- Cashflow was negative -115 million dollars in the first quarter after positive 470 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- Average quarterly cashflow is now positive 87 million dollars.
- We use flat investment spending of -10 million dollars, which with higher sales, gives a higher average quarterly cashflow of 111 million dollars in this next 12 months.
Sales up again, margins strong, average cashflow rising, de leveraging, turning capital payer, higher target price…
Balance sheet, lower leverage
Profit, stronger margins
Value, turning capital payer
- The net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -802 million dollars in the first quarter from -863 million dollars in the fourth quarter & -1,041 million dollars a year ago.
- With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of -115 million dollars...
- ...net leverage will be -473 million dollars in 12 months time.
Profit, stronger margins
- Net profit was higher at 85 million dollars in the first quarter from 71 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was flat at -82%.
- We use the same -82% costs, to predict a higher next 12 months profit of 384 million dollars.
Value, turning capital payer
- TPIA cumulative net capital is at -314 million dollars from the last five years & will now turn payer.
- At the current market value of 9,615 million dollars, based on forecasts it’s 104.3X capital paid, 3.7X sales, 2.8X assets, 4.4X equity, with a 17.7% profitability & a 1.2% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 444 million dollars. At 1.6% with a 0.55X adjustment, gives a 59% higher target price of 11,980 rupiah.
