## TPIA, turning capital payer

Current, target price Rp7,550, 17,425 (+131%)

31st, 2021

1 minute read

Sales, up again

Cashflow, average rising

1 minute read

Sales, up again

- Sales increased again by 11% in the first quarter to 598 million dollars, which is +9% compared to our forecast.
- This is after a 26% increase in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to 8%.
- We predict average growth of 5% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales to 709 million dollars by the first quarter of 2022.

Cashflow, average rising

- Cashflow was negative -115 million dollars in the first quarter after positive 470 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- Average quarterly cashflow is now positive 87 million dollars.
- We use flat investment spending of -10 million dollars, which with higher sales, gives a higher average quarterly cashflow of 111 million dollars in this next 12 months.

## Sales up again, margins strong, average cashflow rising, de leveraging, turning capital payer, higher target price…

Balance sheet, lower leverage

Profit, stronger margins

Value, turning capital payer

- The net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -802 million dollars in the first quarter from -863 million dollars in the fourth quarter & -1,041 million dollars a year ago.
- With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of -115 million dollars...
- ...net leverage will be -473 million dollars in 12 months time.

Profit, stronger margins

- Net profit was higher at 85 million dollars in the first quarter from 71 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was flat at -82%.
- We use the same -82% costs, to predict a higher next 12 months profit of 384 million dollars.

Value, turning capital payer

- TPIA cumulative net capital is at -314 million dollars from the last five years & will now turn payer.
- At the current market value of 9,615 million dollars, based on forecasts it’s 104.3X capital paid, 3.7X sales, 2.8X assets, 4.4X equity, with a 17.7% profitability & a 1.2% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 444 million dollars. At 1.6% with a 0.55X adjustment, gives a 59% higher target price of 11,980 rupiah.