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TPIA, looks expensive
🎯 🏭 📉 Rp6,765
Last 12-month cashflow +USD 3 million ⬆️
January 12th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales
Sales bounced +17% in the third quarter to USD 427 million after a -24% drop in the second quarter. This means that the 12 months average quarterly sales growth has recovered back to a positive +9%. We predict average growth with be +9% in this next 12 months & sales will reach USD 593 million by the third quarter 2021.
Cashflow
Third quarter cash receipts were lower than sales at USD 402 million & investment spending also increased so free cashflow was back to a negative -USD 25 million. But we see investment spending declining to USD 25 million a quarter which with higher sales gives a positive average quarterly free cashflow of +USD 29 million in this next 12 months.
1 minute read
Sales
Sales bounced +17% in the third quarter to USD 427 million after a -24% drop in the second quarter. This means that the 12 months average quarterly sales growth has recovered back to a positive +9%. We predict average growth with be +9% in this next 12 months & sales will reach USD 593 million by the third quarter 2021.
Cashflow
Third quarter cash receipts were lower than sales at USD 402 million & investment spending also increased so free cashflow was back to a negative -USD 25 million. But we see investment spending declining to USD 25 million a quarter which with higher sales gives a positive average quarterly free cashflow of +USD 29 million in this next 12 months.
Sales growing again, cashflow turns positive on lower investment spending, but looks expensive, lower target price...
Balance sheet
With negative free cashflow, the net cash (cash minus liabilities) increased again back slightly above -USD 1 billion from -USD 952 million in the second quarter & -USD 768 million a year ago. With our forecast for positive free cashflow & including a dividend payout of USD 34 million, net cash will be -USD 926 million in 12 months time.
Profit
After four quarterly losses, net profit was back to a positive +USD 11 million again in the third quarter. The cash costs ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales improved to 92%. We use lower 90% costs as sales rise to predict a next 12 months positive net profit of +USD 115 million.
Value
TPIA has raised USD 345 million of capital in the last five years. At the current market value of USD 12.7 billion, it’s a high 6.1X sales, 3.9X assets, 7X equity with a 6.3% profitability & a 0.3% yield. Our cashflow forecast is USD 115 million. At 1.6% with a generous 1.2X adjustment, gives a lower target price of Rp6,765.
With negative free cashflow, the net cash (cash minus liabilities) increased again back slightly above -USD 1 billion from -USD 952 million in the second quarter & -USD 768 million a year ago. With our forecast for positive free cashflow & including a dividend payout of USD 34 million, net cash will be -USD 926 million in 12 months time.
Profit
After four quarterly losses, net profit was back to a positive +USD 11 million again in the third quarter. The cash costs ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales improved to 92%. We use lower 90% costs as sales rise to predict a next 12 months positive net profit of +USD 115 million.
Value
TPIA has raised USD 345 million of capital in the last five years. At the current market value of USD 12.7 billion, it’s a high 6.1X sales, 3.9X assets, 7X equity with a 6.3% profitability & a 0.3% yield. Our cashflow forecast is USD 115 million. At 1.6% with a generous 1.2X adjustment, gives a lower target price of Rp6,765.
