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TOTL, a 212% higher target price
Current 324 Target 1,012 +212%
November 13th 2021
1 minute read
Sales jumped 32%
Costs higher
Cashflow higher from investment gains
Balance sheet, lower leverage
Valuation, a 212% higher target price
1 minute read
Sales jumped 32%
- Sales finally jumped 32% in the third quarter to 512 billion rupiah vs our 421 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to -2% growth.
- We predict positive average growth of 11% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 740 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs higher
- The cash cost ratio was higher at -94% in the third quarter giving a 24 billion rupiah net profit.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is higher still at -100% now.
- We use lower -92% cost ratio to predict a 53 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow higher from investment gains
- Free cashflow was positive again 59 billion rupiah in the third quarter but only with a positive 91 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 21 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -2 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 60 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, lower leverage
- Cash increased from 581 to 639 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined from 1,529 to 1,493 billion rupiah so net cash improved from -948 to -854 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -60 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -684 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, a 212% higher target price
- TOTL capital from the last 27 quarters was flat 727 billion rupiah in the third quarter but will be 957 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,105 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.42 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 5% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 230 billion rupiah which means an 5 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a 212% target price of 1,012 rupiah.
