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TOTL, at 0.4X assets
Current, target price 318, 1,078 (+239%)
August 16th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales drop
Costs stable
1 minute read
Sales drop
- Sales declined by -16% in the second quarter to X billion rupiah which is far below our forecast 500 billion rupiah.
- This brings the average quarterly growth to -3%.
- We predict average growth of 12% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 580 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2022.
Costs stable
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was at -93% in the second quarter & profit was lower at 21 billion rupiah.
- Average quarterly costs are also at -93%
- We use the same -93% costs to predict a 35 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter of 2022.
Cashflow, average is positive
Balance sheet, lower leverage
Value, at 0.4X assets
- Cashflow was negative -42 billion rupiah on working capital, with investment spending of -11 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Average quarterly Cashflow has is now at 33 billion rupiah.
- We use -11 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 33 billion rupiah cashflow in the second quarter 2022.
Balance sheet, lower leverage
- With dividends paid, cash declined from 656 to 581 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities also declined from 1,665 to 1,529 billion rupiah so net cash improved from -1,009 to -948 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -38 billion rupiah equity payout, net cash will be -869 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Value, at 0.4X assets
- TOTL capital from the last six years increased to 727 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- At the current market value of 1,084 billion rupiah, based on our forecasts, it’s at 0.51X sales & 0.40X assets with a 3% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 116 billion rupiah. At 27X (a 3.7% yield), this gives a 190% higher target price of 922 rupiah.
