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TOTL, a 9.4% yield
Current, target price Rp328, 1,248 (+281%)
May 1st , 2021
1 minute read
Sales, lowest
Cashflow, but higher
1 minute read
Sales, lowest
- Sales dropped by -5% in the first quarter to a new low 459 billion rupiah, which is -6% compared to our forecast.
- This is after a -20% increase in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to -8%.
- We predict average growth of 11% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales back to 687 billion rupiah by the first quarter of 2022.
Cashflow, but higher
- Cashflow receipts were higher & cashflow was higher at 45 billion rupiah in the first quarter after positive 23 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Average quarterly cashflow is now positive 17 billion rupiah.
- We use the latest quarter investment spending of -18 billion rupiah, which with higher sales, gives a higher average quarterly cashflow of 34 billion rupiah in this next 12 months.
Sales to a record low, but cashflow receipts & cashflow higher, margins recover, a 9.4% yield forecast, higher target price...
Balance sheet, lower leverage
Profit, margins recover
Value, a 9.4% yield
- With positive cashflow, the net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -1,009 billion rupiah in the first quarter from -1,142 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter & -1,283 billion rupiah a year ago.
- With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of -105 billion rupiah...
- ...net cash will be -978 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Profit, margins recover
- Net profit was higher at 31 billion rupiah in the first quarter from -26 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was down to -91%.
- We use the same -91% costs, to predict a higher next 12 months profit of 175 billion rupiah.
Value, a 9.4% yield
- TOTL cumulative net capital is at 693 billion rupiah from the last six years.
- At the current market value of 1,118 billion rupiah, based on forecasts it’s only 1.35X capital paid, 0.46X sales, 0.39X assets, 0.90X equity, with a 14.1% profitability & a 9.4% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 136 billion rupiah. At 1.6% with a 0.5X adjustment, gives a 281% higher target price of 1,248 rupiah.
