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TOTL
Total Bangun Persada, share trading surges!
🎯👷♀️📈➡️ Rp1,126
12m free cashflow -Rp64bn ⬇️
August 9th, 2020
⏰ 1 minute read
⏰ 1 minute read
Watch the 3 minute explainer using the data file & model ⬇️
Sales
Sales growth was negative at -13% compared to a year ago in the 2Q which is 8% above our forecast! This is the fifth quarter in a row of negative sales growth, but it’s impressive that sales beat our expectations. We expect a recovery from the 3Q onwards which results in 1.6% growth in the next 12 months to Rp2.3tn.
Cashflow
Cashflow in the 2Q was positive at +Rp16bn excluding working capital. While the last 12 months average quarterly cashflow is negative -Rp16bn. Cashflow has been recovering after turning negative in the 4Q With our forecast for slight sales growth in the next 12 months, we also get a more positive next 12 months average free cashflow of Rp38bn per quarter.
Sales to recover, cash flow too, double digit yield, share trading surges predicting higher price...!
Balance sheet
The balance sheet is in net cash because of the previous positive cashflow & the net cash level has remained remarkably consistent for the last five years. It was at Rp515bn as of the 2Q. With our forecast for positive cashflow ahead & a steady Rp105bn dividend payout, the next 12 months net cash position will be higher to Rp564bn.
Profit
With lower sales, net profit was a loss for the first time in 5 years. The cash cost ratio of net profit add depreciation minus sales as a % of sales jumped to 100% bringing the last 12 months ratio to 95%. We use a more optimistic 93% to predict a higher next 12 months net profit of Rp129bn, +8.5%.
Value
TOTL current market value is at Rptn. That’s 0.43X our sales forecast, 0.33X the value of the total assets & 0.88X the equity with a profitability of 11.2X%. That’s very cheap. Yield is forecast at 10.4%. We use our 1.6% cashflow valuation with a 40% discount because of weak sales x which gives a much higher target price of Rp1,126.
The balance sheet is in net cash because of the previous positive cashflow & the net cash level has remained remarkably consistent for the last five years. It was at Rp515bn as of the 2Q. With our forecast for positive cashflow ahead & a steady Rp105bn dividend payout, the next 12 months net cash position will be higher to Rp564bn.
Profit
With lower sales, net profit was a loss for the first time in 5 years. The cash cost ratio of net profit add depreciation minus sales as a % of sales jumped to 100% bringing the last 12 months ratio to 95%. We use a more optimistic 93% to predict a higher next 12 months net profit of Rp129bn, +8.5%.
Value
TOTL current market value is at Rptn. That’s 0.43X our sales forecast, 0.33X the value of the total assets & 0.88X the equity with a profitability of 11.2X%. That’s very cheap. Yield is forecast at 10.4%. We use our 1.6% cashflow valuation with a 40% discount because of weak sales x which gives a much higher target price of Rp1,126.
