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TOBA, a 22% higher target price
Current 550 Target 670 +22%
November 4th 2021
1 minute read
Receipts jumped 19%
Costs will turn profitable
Cashflow to turn positive
Balance sheet, lower leverage
Valuation, a 22% higher target price
1 minute read
Receipts jumped 19%
- Receipts jumped 19% in the third quarter to 93 million dollars which is above our 87 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 20% growth.
- We predict average growth of 12% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 145 million dollars in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs will turn profitable
- The P&L cash cost ratio was at -78% in the third quarter giving a 15 million dollars net profit.
- The Cashflow cost ratio is at -104% now.
- We use the earlier -85% cashflow cost ratio to predict a 15 million dollars profit again in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow to turn positive
- Free cashflow was -6 million dollars in the third quarter with -2 million dollars investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -8 million dollars now.
- We assume -2 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales & margins gives a 19 million dollars Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, lower leverage
- Cash jumped from 19 to 62 million dollars in the third quarter from other investment gains.
- Liabilities declined from 508 to 475 million dollars so net cash improved from -489 to -413 million dollars
- With our forecast cashflow & no equity payout net cash will be -349 million dollars in 12 months time.
Valuation, a 22% higher target price
- TOBA capital from the last 5 years improved to -187 million dollars in the third quarter & will be -123 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 316 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.41 X assets with a 11 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 64 million dollars which means an 5 X valuation. At a 6 X valuation gives a 22% higher target price of 670 rupiah.
