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TINS, turning capital payer
Current, target price 1,495, 2,043 (+37%)

September 3rd, 2021
1 minute read

Sales jump

• Sales jumped by 40% in the second quarter to 3,424 billion rupiah which is far above our forecast 2,813 billion rupiah.
• This brings the average quarterly growth to 2%.
• We predict faster average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,269 billion rupiah in the second quarter of 2022.

Costs improve

• The cash cost ratio of net profit add non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was lower at -87% in the second quarter & profit soared to 260 billion rupiah.
• Average quarterly costs are now at X.
• We use slightly higher -89% costs to predict a 278 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter of 2022.

Data & financial model

Cashflow huge on working capital

• Cashflow almost doubled to 1,342 billion rupiah with investment spending of -158 billion rupiah in the second quarter & still positive working capital.
• Average quarterly Cashflow is now at 868 billion rupiah.
• We use lower -130 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 321 billion rupiah cashflow in the second quarter of 2022.

Balance sheet, lower leverage

• With strong cashflow, cash jumped from 715 to 1,286 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
• Liabilities also declined from 8,588 to 8,285 billion rupiah so net cash improved from -7,873 to -6,999 billion rupiah.
• With our forecast cashflow & a -100 billion rupiah equity payout, net cash will be -5,871 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Value, turning capital payer

• TINS capital from the last six years improved to -1,057 billion rupiah in the second quarter & is forecasting to turn positive 113 billion rupiah in 12 months.
• At the current market value of 11,130 billion rupiah, based on our forecasts, it’s at 0.84X assets with a 1% yield.
• Our free cashflow forecast is 1,170 billion rupiah. At 13X , this gives a 37% higher target price of 2,043 rupiah.