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TINS, a 60% higher target price
Current 1,595 Target 2,550 +60%

November 15th 2021
1 minute read

Sales climbed 12%
  • Sales climbed 12% in the third quarter to 3,829 billion rupiah vs our 3,493 billion rupiah forecast.
  • This brings the quarterly average to 3% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 5% in the next 12 months to bring sales to 4,664 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
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Costs 2 points lower
  • The cash cost ratio was 2 points lower at -85% in the third quarter giving a higher 342 billion rupiah net profit.
  • The Cashflow cost ratio is at -73% now.
  • We use the latest -85% cost ratio to predict a 465 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
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Cashflow, lower from working capital
  • Free cashflow was a lower 228 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -197 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 604 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -225 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 462 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
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Balance sheet, slightly higher leverage
  • Cash declined from 1,286 to 1,102 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities also declined from 8,285 to 8,215 billion rupiah but net cash worsened from -6,999 to -7,113 billion rupiah.
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -174 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -5,560 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
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Valuation, capital improving, a 60% higher target price
  • TINS capital from the last 27 quarters improved to -2,489 billion rupiah in the third quarter & will be -792 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 11,880 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.86 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 1% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 1,726 billion rupiah which means an 7 X valuation. An 11 X valuation gives a 60% higher target price of 2,550 rupiah.