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SSMS, avenge cashflow turns positive
Current, target price Rp925, 1,540 (+66%)
May 11th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales, down from the 4Q record high
Cashflow, avenge turns positive
1 minute read
Sales, down from the 4Q record high
- Sales declined by -14% in the first quarter to 1,089 billion rupiah, which is -10% compared to our forecast.
- This is after a 31% increase in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to 6%.
- We predict average growth of 5% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales to 1,303 billion rupiah by the first quarter of 2022.
Cashflow, avenge turns positive
- Cashflow was negative -20 billion rupiah in the first quarter after positive 250 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Average quarterly cashflow is now positive 2 billion rupiah.
- We use flat investment spending of -201 billion rupiah, which with higher sales, gives a higher average quarterly cashflow of 130 billion rupiah in this next 12 months.
Sales down from the record, margins strong, cashflow negative, but average turns positive, expecting higher cashflow, de leverage, higher target price...
Balance sheet, no de leverage yet
Profit, strong margins
Value, at 0.66X assets
- With negative cashflow, the net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -6,087 billion rupiah in the first quarter from -5,997 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter & -6,079 billion rupiah a year ago.
- With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of -101 billion rupiah...
- ...net cash will improve to -5,666 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Profit, strong margins
- Net profit was lower at 176 billion rupiah in the first quarter from 313 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter on FX losses.
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was up to -70%.
- We use avenge -74% costs, to predict a next 12 months profit of 1,009 billion rupiah.
Value, at 0.66X assets
- SSMS cumulative net capital is at -1,506 billion rupiah from the last five years.
- At the current market value of 8,811 billion rupiah, based on forecasts it’s 1.71X sales, 0.66X assets, 1.48C equity, with a 16.9% profitability & a 1.1% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 521 billion rupiah. At 1.6% with a 0.45X adjustment, gives a 66% higher target price of 1,540 rupiah.
