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SPOT, sales trend still up
Current, target price USD223.6, 278.9 (+ 24.7%)
May 16th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales, down seasonally, but tend still up
Cashflow, lower on higher investment
1 minute read
Sales, down seasonally, but tend still up
- Sales declined seasonally by -1% in the first quarter to 2,147 million euros, which is -2% compared to our forecast.
- This is after a 10% increase in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to 4%.
- We predict average growth of another 4% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales to 2,529 million euros by the first quarter of 2022.
Cashflow, lower on higher investment
- Cashflow was positive 6 million euros in the first quarter after positive 72 million euros in the fourth quarter on higher investment spending.
- Average quarterly cashflow is now positive 52 million euros.
- We use lower investment spending of -31 million dollars, which with higher sales, gives a higher average quarterly cashflow of 66 million euros in this next 12 months.
Sales down seasonally but trend is still up, margins positive, cashflow lower but average expected up, not cheap & still raising capital, but slightly higher target price...
Balance sheet, leverage still high
Profit, positive
Value, more capital raised
- The net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -2,351 million euros in the first quarter from -2,370 million euros in the fourth quarter & -2,062 million euros a year ago.
- With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of -41 million euros ...
- ...the net leverage will be -2,096 million euros in 12 months time.
Profit, positive
- Net profit was positive at 23 million euros in the first quarter from a -125 million euros loss in the fourth quarter on lower non cash costs.
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was down to -96%.
- We use the same -96% costs, to predict a positive next 12 months profit of 137 million euros.
Value, more capital raised
- SPOT cumulative net capital is at -1,479 million euros from the last four years after the latest equity issue.
- At the current market value of 35,036 million euros, based on forecasts it’s 3.64X sales, 4.42X assets, 10.49X equity, with a 4.1% profitability & a 0.1% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 318 million euros. At 1.6% with a 2.2X adjustment, gives a 24.7% higher target price of 278.9 dollars.
