## SPOT, sales growth accelerates

🎯 🎶 📉 USD289

Last 12-month cashflow -€ 264 million ⬇️

January 2nd, 2021

1 minute read

Sales

Sales growth accelerated in the third quarter, growing by +5% from the second to € 1.98 billion, after +2% growth in the second & 0% in the first quarter. Sales from subscriptions increased +2% while sales from advertising jumped +41%. We expect sales to grow a quarterly average +5% to reach € 2.35 billion by the third quarter of 2021.

Cashflow

After three negative quarters in a row, free cashflow was back to a positive +€ 5 million in the third quarter, excluding working capital & net investments in marketable securities. We assume investment spending of € 26 million a quarter which, combined with higher sales, gives a higher average quarterly free cashflow of € 112 million, this next 12 months.

1 minute read

Sales

Sales growth accelerated in the third quarter, growing by +5% from the second to € 1.98 billion, after +2% growth in the second & 0% in the first quarter. Sales from subscriptions increased +2% while sales from advertising jumped +41%. We expect sales to grow a quarterly average +5% to reach € 2.35 billion by the third quarter of 2021.

Cashflow

After three negative quarters in a row, free cashflow was back to a positive +€ 5 million in the third quarter, excluding working capital & net investments in marketable securities. We assume investment spending of € 26 million a quarter which, combined with higher sales, gives a higher average quarterly free cashflow of € 112 million, this next 12 months.

## Sales growth accelerates, cashflow turns positive, but expensive, lower target price...

Balance sheet

With some positive cashflow, the balance sheet net cash increased in the third quarter to € 1.18 billion from € 1.15 billion in the second & € 1.07 billion at the end of last year. With our forecast positive cashflow & a dividend of € 8 million, net cash will be higher at € 1.62 billion in 12 months time.

Profit

There was a lower loss of -€ 101 million in the third quarter from -€ 356 million in the second. The cash cost ratio of net profit add non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales improved to 98%. With higher sales, we use 94% to predict a positive next 12 months net profit of € 26 million.

Value

SPOT has raised a net capital of € 180 million in the last four years. At the current market value € 49.3 billion, it’s 5.55X sales, 8.55X assets, 19.8X equity, with a 1.1% profitability & 0% yield. Our annualized cashflow forecast is € 483 million. At 1.6% with a premium 1.5X adjustment, gives a slightly lower target price of USD289.

With some positive cashflow, the balance sheet net cash increased in the third quarter to € 1.18 billion from € 1.15 billion in the second & € 1.07 billion at the end of last year. With our forecast positive cashflow & a dividend of € 8 million, net cash will be higher at € 1.62 billion in 12 months time.

Profit

There was a lower loss of -€ 101 million in the third quarter from -€ 356 million in the second. The cash cost ratio of net profit add non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales improved to 98%. With higher sales, we use 94% to predict a positive next 12 months net profit of € 26 million.

Value

SPOT has raised a net capital of € 180 million in the last four years. At the current market value € 49.3 billion, it’s 5.55X sales, 8.55X assets, 19.8X equity, with a 1.1% profitability & 0% yield. Our annualized cashflow forecast is € 483 million. At 1.6% with a premium 1.5X adjustment, gives a slightly lower target price of USD289.