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SPOT, sales growth accelerates
🎯 🎶 📉 USD289
Last 12-month cashflow -€ 264 million ⬇️
January 2nd, 2021
1 minute read
Sales
Sales growth accelerated in the third quarter, growing by +5% from the second to € 1.98 billion, after +2% growth in the second & 0% in the first quarter. Sales from subscriptions increased +2% while sales from advertising jumped +41%. We expect sales to grow a quarterly average +5% to reach € 2.35 billion by the third quarter of 2021.
Cashflow
After three negative quarters in a row, free cashflow was back to a positive +€ 5 million in the third quarter, excluding working capital & net investments in marketable securities. We assume investment spending of € 26 million a quarter which, combined with higher sales, gives a higher average quarterly free cashflow of € 112 million, this next 12 months.
1 minute read
Sales
Sales growth accelerated in the third quarter, growing by +5% from the second to € 1.98 billion, after +2% growth in the second & 0% in the first quarter. Sales from subscriptions increased +2% while sales from advertising jumped +41%. We expect sales to grow a quarterly average +5% to reach € 2.35 billion by the third quarter of 2021.
Cashflow
After three negative quarters in a row, free cashflow was back to a positive +€ 5 million in the third quarter, excluding working capital & net investments in marketable securities. We assume investment spending of € 26 million a quarter which, combined with higher sales, gives a higher average quarterly free cashflow of € 112 million, this next 12 months.
Sales growth accelerates, cashflow turns positive, but expensive, lower target price...
Balance sheet
With some positive cashflow, the balance sheet net cash increased in the third quarter to € 1.18 billion from € 1.15 billion in the second & € 1.07 billion at the end of last year. With our forecast positive cashflow & a dividend of € 8 million, net cash will be higher at € 1.62 billion in 12 months time.
Profit
There was a lower loss of -€ 101 million in the third quarter from -€ 356 million in the second. The cash cost ratio of net profit add non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales improved to 98%. With higher sales, we use 94% to predict a positive next 12 months net profit of € 26 million.
Value
SPOT has raised a net capital of € 180 million in the last four years. At the current market value € 49.3 billion, it’s 5.55X sales, 8.55X assets, 19.8X equity, with a 1.1% profitability & 0% yield. Our annualized cashflow forecast is € 483 million. At 1.6% with a premium 1.5X adjustment, gives a slightly lower target price of USD289.
With some positive cashflow, the balance sheet net cash increased in the third quarter to € 1.18 billion from € 1.15 billion in the second & € 1.07 billion at the end of last year. With our forecast positive cashflow & a dividend of € 8 million, net cash will be higher at € 1.62 billion in 12 months time.
Profit
There was a lower loss of -€ 101 million in the third quarter from -€ 356 million in the second. The cash cost ratio of net profit add non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales improved to 98%. With higher sales, we use 94% to predict a positive next 12 months net profit of € 26 million.
Value
SPOT has raised a net capital of € 180 million in the last four years. At the current market value € 49.3 billion, it’s 5.55X sales, 8.55X assets, 19.8X equity, with a 1.1% profitability & 0% yield. Our annualized cashflow forecast is € 483 million. At 1.6% with a premium 1.5X adjustment, gives a slightly lower target price of USD289.
