Other stocks here
SMRA, only 0.26X assets
Current, target price Rp940, 1,276 (+36%)
- Sales & margins lower…
- but cashflow receipts & cashflow stronger,
- expecting higher sales, better margins,
- only 0.26X assets,
- higher target price…
June 1st , 2021
1 minute read
Sales, down seasonally
Cashflow, positive & higher
1 minute read
Sales, down seasonally
- Sales declined seasonally by -40% in the first quarter to 1,071 billion rupiah, which is -24% compared to our forecast.
- This is after a 64% increase in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to 7%.
- We predict average growth of 14% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales to 1,581 billion rupiah by the first quarter of 2022.
Cashflow, positive & higher
- Cashflow was positive 324 billion rupiah in the first quarter after positive 153 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Average quarterly cashflow is still negative -29 billion rupiah.
- We use flat investment spending of -89 billion rupiah, which with higher sales, gives a positive average quarterly cashflow of 113 billion rupiah in this next 12 months.
Balance sheet, still high leverage
Profit, expecting better margins
Value, only 0.26X assets
- The net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -14,572 billion rupiah in the first quarter up from -14,181 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter & -13,882 billion rupiah a year ago.
- With our forecast positive average cashflow & assuming there is no dividend payout...
- ...net leverage will improve to-14,119 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Profit, expecting better margins
- Net profit was lower at 37 billion rupiah in the first quarter from 217 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was back up to -90%.
- We use lower -89% costs, to predict a higher next 12 months profit of 549 billion rupiah.
Value, only 0.26X assets
- SMRA cumulative net capital is at -2,979 billion rupiah from the last six years.
- At the current market value of 13,557 billion rupiah, based on forecasts it’s 1.87X sales, only 0.26X assets, 1.41X equity, with a 5.7% profitability & no yield yet.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 453 billion rupiah. At 1.6% with a 0.65X adjustment, gives a 36% higher target price of 1,276 rupiah.
