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SMRA, a 23% higher target price
Current, target price 805, 986 (+23%)
September 2nd, 2021
1 minute read
Sales up seasonally
Costs lower
1 minute read
Sales up seasonally
- Sales increased seasonally by 30% in the second quarter to 1,388 billion rupiah which is below our forecast 1,713 billion rupiah.
- This brings the average quarterly growth to 12%.
- We predict average growth of 8% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,807 billion rupiah in the second quarter of 2022.
Costs lower
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales improved to -86% in the second quarter & profit tripled to 119 billion rupiah.
- Average quarterly costs are now at -89%.
- We use much lower -80% costs to predict a 285 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter of 2022.
Cashflow stronger
Balance sheet, leverage flat
Value, a 23% higher target price
- Cashflow increased further to 476 billion rupiah despite higher investment spending of -133 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Average quarterly Cashflow has turned positive to 207 billion rupiah.
- We use lower -101 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 254 billion rupiah cashflow in the second quarter 2022.
Balance sheet, leverage flat
- With new capital, cash increased from 1,916 to 2,842 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased from 16,488 to 17,400 billion rupiah so net cash improved slightly from -14,572 to -14,558 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & no equity payout, net cash will impure to -13,721 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Value, a 23% higher target price
- SMRA capital from the last six years increased again to -3,430 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- At the current market value of 11,610 billion rupiah, based on our forecasts, it’s at -0.41X sales & 0.44X assets with a 0% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 837 billion rupiah. At 17X, this gives a 23% higher target price of 986 rupiah.
