Other stocks here
SMGR, a 71% higher target price
Current 8,975 Target 15,335 +71%
November 2nd 2021
1 minute read
Sales up 12%
Costs lower
Cashflow back up
Balance sheet, lower leverage
Valuation, a 71% higher target price
1 minute read
Sales up 12%
- Sales were up 12% in the third quarter to 9,117 billion rupiah which is above our 8,543 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to -1% growth.
- We predict faster average growth of 7% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 11,516 billion rupiah by the third quarter of 2022.
Costs lower
- The cash cost ratio was lower at -84% in the third quarter giving an almost 2X higher 655 billion rupiah net profit:
- The Cashflow cost ratio is at -83% now.
- We use the Cashflow -83% cost ratio to predict a 1,137 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow back up
- Free cashflow was back up at 1,281 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -457 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 967 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -457 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 1,384 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, lower leverage
- Cash increased from 2,500 to 3,539 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined from 37,907 to 35,741 billion rupiah so net cash improved from -35,407 to -32,202 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,068 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -28,139 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, a 71% higher target price
- SMGR capital from the last six years increased to 1,249 billion rupiah in the third quarter & will be 4,933 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 53,240 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.71 X assets with a 16 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 4,548 billion rupiah which means an 12 X valuation. At a 20 X valuation gives a 71% higher target price of 15,335 rupiah.
