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SIMP, a 152% higher target price
Current 466 Target 1,196 +157%
December 2nd 2021
1 minute read
Sales jumped 21%
Costs down 22 points, profit 1.6 trillion rupiah
Cashflow up 4X
Balance sheet, lower leverage
Valuation, a 9% yield, 152% higher target price
1 minute read
Sales jumped 21%
- Sales jumped 21% in the third quarter to 5,168 billion rupiah vs our 4,301 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 11% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 6,134 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs down 22 points, profit 1.6 trillion rupiah
- The cash cost ratio fell -64% in the third quarter giving a 1,611 billion rupiah net profit.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -84% now.
- We use the average -84% cost ratio to predict a 622 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow up 4X
- Free cashflow quadrupled to 767 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -294 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 418 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -294 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 703 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, lower leverage
- Cash increased from 3,023 to 3,532 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased from 17,146 to 17,381 billion rupiah so net cash improved from -14,123 to -13,849 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -684 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -11,884 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, a 9% yield, 152% higher target price
- SIMP capital from the last 27 quarters was -806 billion rupiah in the third quarter with a -146 billion rupiah liabilities payment & a -103 billion rupiah equity payout & will be positive 1,718 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 7,224 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.20 X assets with a 13 years payback & a 9% yield.
- Our 12 month cashflow forecast is 2,605 billion rupiah which means an 3 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 157% higher target price of 1,196 rupiah.
