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SIMP, only 0.19X assets
Current, target price 440, 1,986 (+351%)
July 1st, 2021
1 minute read
Sales, up again
Costs, stable
1 minute read
Sales, up again
- Sales increased again by 13% in the first quarter to 4,699 billion rupiah which is above our forecast 4,287 million dollars.
- This brings the average quarterly growth to a strong 9%.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 5,232 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2022.
Costs, stable
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was -90% in the first quarter & profit was 189 billion rupiah.
- Average quarterly costs are now at -89%.
- We use the same -90% costs to predict a 243 billion rupiah net profit in the first quarter of 2022.
Cashflow, average 300 billion rupiah
Balance sheet, slightly lower leverage
Value, only 0.19X assets
- Cashflow was up to a very strong 701 billion rupiah with investment spending of -246 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Average quarterly Cashflow has now improved to 297 billion rupiah.
- We use the same -246 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 301 billion rupiah cashflow in the first quarter 2022.
Balance sheet, slightly lower leverage
- With positive cashflow, cash increased from 2,427 to 3,055 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities also increased from 16,905 to 17,477 billion rupiah so net cash improved slightly from -14,478 to -14,422 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming there’s an -274 equity payout, net cash will improve to -13,552 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Value, only 0.19X assets
- SIMP capital from the last six years improved slightly to -1,326 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- At the current market value of 6,821 billion rupiah, based on our forecasts, it’s at 0.34X sales & 0.19X assets with a 4% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 1,100 billion rupiah. At 28X (3.6% yield), this gives a 351% higher target price of 1,986 rupiah.
