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SILO, a 99% higher target price
Current, target price 8,325, 16,526 (+99%)

August 1st, 2021
1 minute read

Sales slightly lower

• Sales declined by -1% in the second quarter to 1,900 billion rupiah which is slightly below our forecast 1,950 billion rupiah.
• Average quarterly growth is now at a large 12%.
• We precut average growth of 4% in this next 12 months which will bring sales to 2,235 billion rupiah in the second quarter of 2022.

Costs, average margins strong

• The cash costs ratio of net profit add non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was a higher -78% in the second quarter but profit stayed strong at 152 billion rupiah on other income.
• Average quarterly costs are at -79% & profit is 139 billion rupiah.
• We use -80% costs to predict a 163 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter of 2022.

Data & financial model

Cashflow, turns negative

• Cashflow turned negative -388 billion rupiah in the second quarter with investment spending of -113 billion rupiah.
• Average quarterly Cashflow is now at 214 billion rupiah.
• We use the same investment spending of -113 billion dollars which with higher sales gives a 316 billion rupiah in the second quarter of 2022.

Balance sheet slightly higher leverage

• With a dividend payout, cash declined from 1,126 to 850 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
• Liabilities also declined from 2,705 to 2,633 billion rupiah so net cash went from -1,579 to -1,783 billion rupiah.
• With our forecast higher cashflow & an equity payout of -302 billion rupiah, net cash will improve to -825 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Value, a 99% higher target price

• SILO capital raised from the last six years improved to -1,647 in the second quarter.
• At the current market value of 13,450 billion rupiah, based on our forecasts, it’s at 1.55X sales, 1.82X assets with a 2% yield.
• Our cashflow forecast is 1,214 billion rupiah. At 22X (a 4.5% yield) this gives a 99% higher target price of 16,526 rupiah.