## SIDO, another great quarter

Target price USD90.8

Last 12-month cashflow -USD 227 million

February 8th,, 2021

1 minute read

Sales

Sales jumped by +35% in the fourth quarter to Rp 1.08 trillion as herbal sales increased by 50% from the third quarter. Sales were 13% above our forecast. The quarterly average growth is at 6%. We expect average growth of 5% in this next 12 month & sales to rise to Rp 1.3 trillion by the fourth quarter of 2021.

Cashflow

Cashflow was also very strong at a record Rp 374 billion in the fourth quarter from Rp 247 billion in the third quarter. Average quarterly free cashflow is at Rp 235 billion. We assume investment spending continues at Rp 30 billion which with higher sales gives a higher average quantity free cashflow Rp 308 billion in this next 12 months.

1 minute read

Sales

Sales jumped by +35% in the fourth quarter to Rp 1.08 trillion as herbal sales increased by 50% from the third quarter. Sales were 13% above our forecast. The quarterly average growth is at 6%. We expect average growth of 5% in this next 12 month & sales to rise to Rp 1.3 trillion by the fourth quarter of 2021.

Cashflow

Cashflow was also very strong at a record Rp 374 billion in the fourth quarter from Rp 247 billion in the third quarter. Average quarterly free cashflow is at Rp 235 billion. We assume investment spending continues at Rp 30 billion which with higher sales gives a higher average quantity free cashflow Rp 308 billion in this next 12 months.

## Sales bear our forecast again, record cashflow, lots of cash, higher target price again...

Balance sheet

The balance sheer leverage of cash minus total liabilities is a positive +Rp 404 billion in the fourth quarter from +Rp 632 billion in the third (interim dividend payment), +Rp 401 billion a year ago. With our forecast higher cashflow & a dividend payout Rp 1.06 trillion, the net cash will be at +Rp 576 billion in 12 months time.

Profit

Net profit was Rp 293 billion in the fourth quarter up from Rp 227 billion in the third quarter. The cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was higher at 70%. We use the same 70% costs to predict a higher next 12 months profit of Rp 1.25 trillion.

Value

SIDO has paid out net Rp 3.2 trillion of capital the last six years. At the current market value of Rp 23.3 trillion, it’s 7.2X capital paid, 5.2X sales, 3.1X assets, 6.3X equity with a 36% profitability & a 3.5% yield. Our cashflow forecast is Rp 1.23 trillion. At 1.6% with a 0.7X adjustment gives a higher target price Rp1,796.

The balance sheer leverage of cash minus total liabilities is a positive +Rp 404 billion in the fourth quarter from +Rp 632 billion in the third (interim dividend payment), +Rp 401 billion a year ago. With our forecast higher cashflow & a dividend payout Rp 1.06 trillion, the net cash will be at +Rp 576 billion in 12 months time.

Profit

Net profit was Rp 293 billion in the fourth quarter up from Rp 227 billion in the third quarter. The cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was higher at 70%. We use the same 70% costs to predict a higher next 12 months profit of Rp 1.25 trillion.

Value

SIDO has paid out net Rp 3.2 trillion of capital the last six years. At the current market value of Rp 23.3 trillion, it’s 7.2X capital paid, 5.2X sales, 3.1X assets, 6.3X equity with a 36% profitability & a 3.5% yield. Our cashflow forecast is Rp 1.23 trillion. At 1.6% with a 0.7X adjustment gives a higher target price Rp1,796.