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SAME, expensive valuations
Current, target price 630, 332 (-47%)
August 11th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales flat
Costs down sharply
1 minute read
Sales flat
- Sales were flat with 0% growth in the second quarter at 219 billion rupiah which is below our forecast 226 billion rupiah.
- This brings the average quarterly growth to 31%.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 244 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2022.
Costs down sharply
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales dropped to -63% in the second quarter & profit was up to 59 billion rupiah.
- Average quarterly costs are now at -98%.
- We use -85% costs to predict an 16 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter of 2022.
But cashflow negative
Balance sheet equity to pay debt
Expensive valuations
- Cashflow was negative again -60 billion rupiah with investment spending of -14 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Average quarterly Cashflow has now -16 billion rupiah.
- We use lower -1 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a positive 36 billion rupiah cashflow in the second quarter 2022.
Balance sheet equity to pay debt
- After debt payments, cash declined from 1,210 to 119 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined from 1,349 to 227 billion rupiah so net cash improved from -139 to -108 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & an -18 billion rupiah equity payout, net cash will be 14 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Expensive valuations
- SAME capital from the last five years improved to -802 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- At the current market value of 8,490 billion rupiah, based on our forecasts, it’s at 9.0X sales & 4.1X assets with a 0% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 140 billion rupiah. At 32X (a 3% yield), this gives a -47% lower target price of 332 rupiah.
