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SAME, sales & margins up but no cashflow
Current, target price Rp519, 549 (+6%)

May 1st, 2021
1 minute read

Sales, up again
  • Sales increased by 33% in the first quarter to 219 billion rupiah, which is 18% compared to our forecast.
  • This is after a 29% increase in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to 20%.
  • We predict average growth of 1% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales to 226 billion rupiah by the first quarter of 2022.

Cashflow, negative
  • Cashflow was negative -9 billion rupiah in the first quarter after positive 4 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • Average quarterly cashflow is now negative -1 billion rupiah.
  • We use flat investment spending of -4 billion rupiah, which with higher sales, gives a positive average quarterly cashflow of 40 billion rupiah in this next 12 months.

Sales & margins up, but cashflow negative, predicting positive cashflow, but not cheap, slightly higher target price...

Balance sheet, new equity
  • With new equity, the net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -139 billion rupiah in the first quarter from -1,318 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter & -1,232 billion rupiah a year ago.
  • With our forecast positive cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of -26 billion rupiah...
  • ...net cash will be -6 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Profit, margins suddenly positive
  • Net profit was higher at 39 billion rupiah in the first quarter from 8 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • The cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was down sharply to -72%
  • We use higher -80% costs, to predict a positive next 12 months profit of 88 billion rupiah.

Value, expensive
  • SAME cumulative net capital is now at -1,834 billion rupiah from the last five years.
  • At the current market value of 4,243 billion rupiah, it’sbased on forecasts it’s 4.98X sales, 1.39X assets, 2.30X equity, with a 4.8% profitability & a 0.6% yield.
  • Our free cashflow forecast is 160 billion rupiah. At 1.6% with a 0.45X adjustment, gives a 6% higher target price of 549 rupiah.