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SAME, 3Q sales recovery
Target price Rp291
Last 12-month cashflow -Rp 120 billion
February 13th,, 2021
1 minute read
Sales
Sales bounced back by +61% in the third quarter to Rp 127 billion after the large -42% decline in the second quarter. Average quarterly sales growth in the last 12 month is positive again, +6%. We expect average quarterly growth of +7% in this next 12 months & sales to rise to Rp 165 billion by the third quarter 2021.
Cashflow
Cashflow also turned positive again, Rp 3 billion in the third quarter from -Rp 3 billion in the second quarter. Average quarterly Cashflow is -Rp 30 billion. Investment spending is almost zero. We use Rp 1 billion spending in our forecast which together with higher sales gives a positive average quarterly Cashflow Rp 7 billion in this next 12 months.
1 minute read
Sales
Sales bounced back by +61% in the third quarter to Rp 127 billion after the large -42% decline in the second quarter. Average quarterly sales growth in the last 12 month is positive again, +6%. We expect average quarterly growth of +7% in this next 12 months & sales to rise to Rp 165 billion by the third quarter 2021.
Cashflow
Cashflow also turned positive again, Rp 3 billion in the third quarter from -Rp 3 billion in the second quarter. Average quarterly Cashflow is -Rp 30 billion. Investment spending is almost zero. We use Rp 1 billion spending in our forecast which together with higher sales gives a positive average quarterly Cashflow Rp 7 billion in this next 12 months.
Big sales jump, cashflow back to positive, but a lower target price...
Balance sheet
The balance sheet net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was higher at -Rp 1.25 trillion in the third quarter from -Rp 1.21 trillion in the second quarter & -Rp 1.14 trillion a year ago: With our forecast for some positive free cashflow ahead & no dividend payout, net cash will be at -Rp 1.22 trillion in 12 months time.
Profit
The third quarter had a net loss of -Rp 410 billion because of a non cash write off. The cash cost ratio of net profit add non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was at 138%. As sales rise, we use 95% costs to predict a lower net loss, -Rp 48 billion in this next 12 months.
Value
SAME has raised a net capital of Rp 642 billion in the last five years . At the current market value of Rp 2.4 trillion, it’s at 4X sales, 1.37X assets, 4.73X equity with no profitability & no yield yet. Our cashflow forecast is Rp 27 billion. At 1.6% with, generously, no adjustment, gives a lower target price of Rp291.
The balance sheet net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was higher at -Rp 1.25 trillion in the third quarter from -Rp 1.21 trillion in the second quarter & -Rp 1.14 trillion a year ago: With our forecast for some positive free cashflow ahead & no dividend payout, net cash will be at -Rp 1.22 trillion in 12 months time.
Profit
The third quarter had a net loss of -Rp 410 billion because of a non cash write off. The cash cost ratio of net profit add non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was at 138%. As sales rise, we use 95% costs to predict a lower net loss, -Rp 48 billion in this next 12 months.
Value
SAME has raised a net capital of Rp 642 billion in the last five years . At the current market value of Rp 2.4 trillion, it’s at 4X sales, 1.37X assets, 4.73X equity with no profitability & no yield yet. Our cashflow forecast is Rp 27 billion. At 1.6% with, generously, no adjustment, gives a lower target price of Rp291.
