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ROTI, turning capital payer
Current, target price 1,350, 1,947 (+44%)
August 4th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales down seasonally
Costs low
1 minute read
Sales down seasonally
- Sales declined seasonally by -2% in the second quarter to 770 billion rupiah which is below our forecast 808 billion rupiah.
- This brings the average quarterly growth to 0%
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 882 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2022.
Costs low
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add on cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales improved to -86% in the second quarter & profit increased to 65 billion rupiah.
- Average quarterly costs are also now at -86%.
- We use the same -86% costs to predict a 81 billion rupiah net profit in the second quarter of 2022.
Cashflow, average strong
Balance sheet, higher leverage
Value, turning capital payer
- Cashflow was down to 10 billion rupiah with investment spending of -45 billion rupiah in the second quarter from working capital.
- Average quarterly Cashflow has now improved to 69 billion rupiah.
- We use the same -45 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 78 billion rupiah cashflow in the second quarter 2022.
Balance sheet, higher leverage
- Cash declined in the second quarter from 1,141 to 753 billion rupiah on equity payouts.
- Liabilities increased slightly from 1,266 to 1,275 billion rupiah so the net cash worsened from -125 to -522 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast positive cashflow & a -151 billion rupiah equity payout, the net cash will improve to -367 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Value, turning capital payer
- ROTI capital from the last five years improved significantly to -360 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- At the current market value of 8,258 billion rupiah, based on our forecasts, it’s at 2.46X sales, 1.96 assets with a 2% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 288 billion rupiah. At 40X (a 2.5% yield), this gives a 40% higher target price of 1,885 rupiah.
