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RANC, only 0.27X sales
Current, target price Rp510, 813 (+59%)
May 8th , 2021
1 minute read
Sales, higher again
Cashflow, negative
1 minute read
Sales, higher again
- Sales increased again by 2% in the first quarter to 726 billion rupiah, which is +2% compared to our forecast.
- This is after a 2% increase in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to -1%.
- We predict average growth of +1% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales to 755 billion rupiah by the first quarter of 2022.
Cashflow, negative
- Cashflow was negative -55 billion rupiah in the first quarter after positive 48 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter on higher lease expenses.
- Average quarterly cashflow is now positive just 2 billion rupiah.
- We use lower investment spending of -26 billion rupiah, which with higher sales, gives a higher average quarterly cashflow of 10 billion rupiah in this next 12 months.
Sales higher again, margins lower, cashflow negative, higher leverage from leases, but higher cashflow ahead, cheap at only 0.27X sales, a capital payer & a higher target price...
Balance sheet, higher leverage from leases
Profit, lower
Value, only 0.27X sales
- From higher leases, the net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -572 billion rupiah in the first quarter from -493 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter & -365 billion rupiah a year ago.
- With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of -19 billion rupiah...
- ...net cash will improve to -493 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Profit, lower
- Net profit was lower at 5 billion rupiah in the first quarter from 10 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was up to -95%.
- We use lower -93% costs, to predict a slightly higher next 12 months profit of 65 billion rupiah.
Value, only 0.27X sales
- RANC cumulative net capital is at +147 billion rupiah from the last five years.
- At the current market value of 798 billion rupiah, based on forecasts it’s 4.26X capital paid, only 0.27X sales, 0.61X assets, 1.34X equity, with a 10.9% profitability & a 2.4% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 41 billion rupiah. At 1.6% with a 0.5X adjustment, gives a 59% higher target price of 813 rupiah.
