Other stocks here
PTRO, a 5.9% yield
Current, target price Rp2,270, 5,072 (+123%)
May 9th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales, flat
Cashflow, a surprise fall
1 minute read
Sales, flat
- Sales were flat in the first quarter at 91 million dollars, which is +1% compared to our forecast.
- This is after a 23% increase in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to -1%.
- We predict average growth of 6% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales back to 113 million dollars by the first quarter of 2022.
Cashflow, a surprise fall
- Cashflow was surprisingly way down at -28 million dollars in the first quarter after positive 26 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- Average quarterly cashflow is still just positive 3 million dollars.
- We use flat investment spending of -8 million dollars, which with higher sales, gives a higher average quarterly cashflow of 14 million dollars in this next 12 months.
Sales flat, margins down, cashflow big minus, leverage up... but the trend is still higher sales, strong margins, cashflow & de leverage, cheap with a 5.9% yield, higher target price...
Balance sheet, higher leverage
Profit, lower margins
Value
- With negative cashflow, the net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -198 million dollars in the first quarter from -164 million dollars in the fourth quarter, but down from -247 million dollars a year ago.
- With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of -9 million dollars...
- ...net cash will be -134 million dollars in 12 months time.
Profit, lower margins
- Net profit was also lower at 4 million dollars in the first quarter from 19 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was up sharply to -76%.
- We use the same -76% costs, to predict a flat next 12 months profit of 31 million dollars.
Value
- PTRO cumulative net capital is at +40 million dollars from the last five years.
- At the current market value of 161 million dollars, based on forecasts it’s only 1.6X capital paid, 0.4X sales, 0.3X assets, 0.6X equity, with a 12.2% profitability & a 5.9% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 57.5 million dollars. At 1.6% with a very big 0.1X adjustment, gives a 123% higher target price of rupiah.
