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PTRO, very cheap
🎯 ⛏ 📈 Rp5,591
Last 12-month cashflow +USD 72 million ⬇️
January 14th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales
After a -30% decline in the second quarter, sales growth was back to a positive +2% in the third quarter at USD 74 million. Sales have dropped in half from a year ago, but we now see positive growth resuming at an average quarterly rate of 7.5% leading to sales of USD 98.8 million by the third quarter next year.
Cashflow
The positive cashflow has declined & was at USD 4 million in the third quarter from USD 20 million in the second quarter. Investment spending increased to USD 13 million. We expect lower average investment spending of USD 6.9 million, which with higher sales gives an average quarterly free cashflow back to USD 16 million in this next 12 months.
1 minute read
Sales
After a -30% decline in the second quarter, sales growth was back to a positive +2% in the third quarter at USD 74 million. Sales have dropped in half from a year ago, but we now see positive growth resuming at an average quarterly rate of 7.5% leading to sales of USD 98.8 million by the third quarter next year.
Cashflow
The positive cashflow has declined & was at USD 4 million in the third quarter from USD 20 million in the second quarter. Investment spending increased to USD 13 million. We expect lower average investment spending of USD 6.9 million, which with higher sales gives an average quarterly free cashflow back to USD 16 million in this next 12 months.
Sales growth to return, higher cashflow, very cheap with 5% yield, much higher target price...
Balance sheet
The balance sheet net cash minus liabilities was at -USD 199 million in the third quarter from -USD 211 million in the second quarter & -USD 313 million a year ago. With more positive free cashflow ahead & assuming a dividend payout of USD 7.4 million, the net cash will improve further to -USD 143 million in 12 months time.
Profit
Net profit was USD 4 million in the third quarter from USD 4.8 million in the second quarter. The cash costs ratio of net profit add back the non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was higher at 72%. We use an average 74% costs ratio which predicts a next 12 months profit of USD 24.7 million.
Value
PTRO has paid out net capital of USD 46 million the last five years. At the current market value of USD 146 million, it’s 3.2X capital paid, only 0.4X sales, 0.3X assets, 0.6X equity with a 10.7% profitability & a 5.1% yield. Our cashflow forecast is USD 63 million. At 1.6% with a huge 0.1X adjustment gives a target Rp5,591.
The balance sheet net cash minus liabilities was at -USD 199 million in the third quarter from -USD 211 million in the second quarter & -USD 313 million a year ago. With more positive free cashflow ahead & assuming a dividend payout of USD 7.4 million, the net cash will improve further to -USD 143 million in 12 months time.
Profit
Net profit was USD 4 million in the third quarter from USD 4.8 million in the second quarter. The cash costs ratio of net profit add back the non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was higher at 72%. We use an average 74% costs ratio which predicts a next 12 months profit of USD 24.7 million.
Value
PTRO has paid out net capital of USD 46 million the last five years. At the current market value of USD 146 million, it’s 3.2X capital paid, only 0.4X sales, 0.3X assets, 0.6X equity with a 10.7% profitability & a 5.1% yield. Our cashflow forecast is USD 63 million. At 1.6% with a huge 0.1X adjustment gives a target Rp5,591.
