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PTRO, an 11% yield
Current, target price Rp1,940, 7,085 (+265%)
Last, next 12-months cashflow +USD 76, +80 million
April 2nd, 2021
1 minute read
Sake’s, jump 23%
Cashflow, higher cashflow
1 minute read
Sake’s, jump 23%
- Sales jumped 23% in the fourth quarter to USD 91 million which is 15% above our forecast.
- This is after a 2% increase in the third quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to 0%.
- We predict positive average quarterly growth of 5.5% in this next 12 months, bringing sales to USD 112 million by the fourth quarter of 2021.
Cashflow, higher cashflow
- Cashflow was higher at USD 31 million in the fourth quarter after USD 4 million in the third quarter.
- The average quarterly Cashflow is now at USD 19 million.
- We use the latest investment spending of USD 11 million which together with higher sales, gives a higher average quarterly free Cashflow of USD 20 million in this next 12 months.
Sales well ahead of forecast, strong margins & cashflow, USD 80 million Cashflow with an USD 130 million market value, 11% yield, much higher target price...
Balance sheet, de leveraging
Profit, strong margins
Value, an 11% yield
- With positive cashflow, the net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -USD 164 million in the fourth quarter from -USD 199 million in the third quarter & -USD 254 million a year ago.
- With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of USD 15.5 million...
- ...the net cash will be -USD 100 million in 12 months time.
Profit, strong margins
- Net profit jumped to USD 19.3 million in the fourth quarter from USD 4 million in the third quarter.
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was much lower at 59%.
- We use the average 69% cost ratio to predict a higher next 12 months net profit of USD 51.5 million.
Value, an 11% yield
- PTRO has paid out USD 35 million capital in the last five years.
- At the current market value of USD 137 million, it’s 3.9X capital paid, only 0.3X sales, 0.3X assets, 0.5X equity, with a 19% profitability & an 11% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is USD 80 million. At 1.6% with a 0.1X adjustment gives a higher target price Rp7,085.