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PSGO, at 0.85X assets
Current, target price 147, 187 (+27%)

August 10th, 2021
1 minute read

Sales down

• Sales declined by -14% in the second quarter to 299 billion rupiah which is below our forecast 314 billion rupiah.
• This brings the average quarterly growth to 10%.
• We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 378 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2022.

Costs up

• The cash cost ratio of net profit add on cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was up to -94% in the second quarter & profit was negative -11 billion rupiah.
• Average quarterly costs are now at -87%.
• We use the same -87% costs to predict a 19 billion rupiah net profit in the second quarter of 2022.

Data file & model

Cashflow negative again

• Cashflow was negative again at -79 billion rupiah with an investment gain of 5 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
• Average quarterly Cashflow has improved to -35 billion rupiah.
• We use 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 47 billion rupiah cashflow in the second quarter 2022.

Balance sheet higher leverage

• With negative cashflow, cash declined from 224 to 118 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
• Liabilities also declined from 2,176 to 2,148 billion rupiah so net worsened from -1,952 to -2,030 billion rupiah.
• With our forecast cashflow & no equity payout, net cash will be -1,853 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Value, at 0.85X assets

• PSGO capital from the last five years improved to -1,602 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
• At the current market value of 2,771 billion rupiah, based on our forecasts, it’s at 1.96X sales & 0.85X assets with a 0% yield.
• Our free cashflow forecast is 177 billion rupiah. At 18X (a 5.6% yield), this gives a 15% higher target price of 169 rupiah.