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PSDN, only 0.15X sales
🎯 ☕️ 📈 Rp220
Last 12-month cashflow -Rp 37 billion ⬇️
December 24th, 2020
1 minute read
Sales
After five consecutive quarterly declines, sales jumped by +47% in the third quarter from the second quarter. At Rp 244 billion, sales were 3% above our forecast Rp 236 billion. The big gains were in rubber exports, which tripled to Rp 151 billion. We see sales rising back up to Rp 322 billion by the third quarter of next year.
Cashflow
Despite higher sales & even higher receipts of Rp 282 billion, cashflow was still a negative -Rp 14 billion compared to the last 12 months average -Rp 9 billion. But with investment spending expected to stay low at Rp 5 billion combined with higher sales, we predict a positive average quarterly cashflow of +Rp4 billion in this next 12 months.
1 minute read
Sales
After five consecutive quarterly declines, sales jumped by +47% in the third quarter from the second quarter. At Rp 244 billion, sales were 3% above our forecast Rp 236 billion. The big gains were in rubber exports, which tripled to Rp 151 billion. We see sales rising back up to Rp 322 billion by the third quarter of next year.
Cashflow
Despite higher sales & even higher receipts of Rp 282 billion, cashflow was still a negative -Rp 14 billion compared to the last 12 months average -Rp 9 billion. But with investment spending expected to stay low at Rp 5 billion combined with higher sales, we predict a positive average quarterly cashflow of +Rp4 billion in this next 12 months.
Sales jump as rubber exports triple, low investment so cashflow can turn positive, very cheap only 0.15X sales, could be positive share price surprises to come here...
Balance sheet
Because of negative cashflow & negative working capital, net debt has continued to increase this year & was Rp 482 billion in the third quarter, up from Rp 427 billion in December. But assuming positive cashflow now & a small dividend payment of Rp 2.3 billion, the net debt will be lower at Rp 467 billion in 12 months time.
Profit
There was also a net loss of -Rp 17 billion (-Rp 30 billion without FX) in the third quarter. The cash cost ratio of net profit add depreciation minus FX minus sales as percent of sales was higher at 110%. We assume a lower 97% because of higher sales, which predicts a next 12 months positive profit +Rp 17 billion.
Value
PSDN has raised a net capital of Rp 185 billion in the last five years. At the current market value of just Rp 174 billion, it’s 0.15X sales, 0.22X assets, 1.23X equity, with an 11.8% profitability & 1% yield. Our cashflow forecast is Rp 16.8 billion. At 1.6% with a conservative 0.3X adjustment gives a new higher target price, Rp220.
Because of negative cashflow & negative working capital, net debt has continued to increase this year & was Rp 482 billion in the third quarter, up from Rp 427 billion in December. But assuming positive cashflow now & a small dividend payment of Rp 2.3 billion, the net debt will be lower at Rp 467 billion in 12 months time.
Profit
There was also a net loss of -Rp 17 billion (-Rp 30 billion without FX) in the third quarter. The cash cost ratio of net profit add depreciation minus FX minus sales as percent of sales was higher at 110%. We assume a lower 97% because of higher sales, which predicts a next 12 months positive profit +Rp 17 billion.
Value
PSDN has raised a net capital of Rp 185 billion in the last five years. At the current market value of just Rp 174 billion, it’s 0.15X sales, 0.22X assets, 1.23X equity, with an 11.8% profitability & 1% yield. Our cashflow forecast is Rp 16.8 billion. At 1.6% with a conservative 0.3X adjustment gives a new higher target price, Rp220.
