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PSDN
PSDN, a slightly higher target price
🎯 ☕️📈Rp189
Last 12 months cashflow -Rp58bn ⬆️
September 19th, 2020
⏰ 1 minute read
⏰ 1 minute read
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Sales
Sales growth in the 2Q was -49%, the 5th quarter in a row of negative growth. Sales are back below early 2015 levels. Rubber exports fell by -72% while instant coffee sales were -15% & were higher than the 1Q. We predict sales will recover a bit from the 3Q, but will fall -6% this next 12 months to Rp884bn.
Cashflow
Cashflow was back to a small negative -Rp4bn in the 2Q., excluding working capital & slightly more negative including. Cashflow has been very negative in 2018 & 2019 because of huger investment spending. This has now slowed. With higher sales from the 3Q & low investment, cashflow can be a small positive average +Rp3.6bn a quarter this next 12 months.
Sales growth in the 2Q was -49%, the 5th quarter in a row of negative growth. Sales are back below early 2015 levels. Rubber exports fell by -72% while instant coffee sales were -15% & were higher than the 1Q. We predict sales will recover a bit from the 3Q, but will fall -6% this next 12 months to Rp884bn.
Cashflow
Cashflow was back to a small negative -Rp4bn in the 2Q., excluding working capital & slightly more negative including. Cashflow has been very negative in 2018 & 2019 because of huger investment spending. This has now slowed. With higher sales from the 3Q & low investment, cashflow can be a small positive average +Rp3.6bn a quarter this next 12 months.
Small positive cashflow, slightly lower debt, slightly higher share price...
Balance sheet
The balance sheet was already net debt, starting from Rp200bn in 2015. Net debt ballooned with the negative cashflow in the last couple of years. Net debt was at Rp449bn as of the 2Q, down from Rp496bn in 1Q. With our forecast cashflow & of course no dividend payment, the net debt will reduce slightly to Rp434bn in 12 months.
Profit
Despite the sales decline,, net profit was positive after 10 quarters of losses. Bu that’s from an FX gain. The cash cost ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a % of sales has almost always been above 100%... we use the latest cash flow ratio of 95% to predict a next 12 months profit of Rp22.9bn.
Value
PSDM has been raising capital for most of the last 5 years. We predict a small payment this next 12 months. At Rp151bn, it’s 0.17x sales, 0.2x assets, 0.9x equity with a 13.7% profitability & 0% yield. We forecast a cashflow of Rp14.5bm. At 1.6% with a 0.3x adjustment because of the debt gives a slightly higher target price Rp189.
The balance sheet was already net debt, starting from Rp200bn in 2015. Net debt ballooned with the negative cashflow in the last couple of years. Net debt was at Rp449bn as of the 2Q, down from Rp496bn in 1Q. With our forecast cashflow & of course no dividend payment, the net debt will reduce slightly to Rp434bn in 12 months.
Profit
Despite the sales decline,, net profit was positive after 10 quarters of losses. Bu that’s from an FX gain. The cash cost ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a % of sales has almost always been above 100%... we use the latest cash flow ratio of 95% to predict a next 12 months profit of Rp22.9bn.
Value
PSDM has been raising capital for most of the last 5 years. We predict a small payment this next 12 months. At Rp151bn, it’s 0.17x sales, 0.2x assets, 0.9x equity with a 13.7% profitability & 0% yield. We forecast a cashflow of Rp14.5bm. At 1.6% with a 0.3x adjustment because of the debt gives a slightly higher target price Rp189.
