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POWR, a 5.6% yield
Target price Rp2,908
Last 12-month cashflow +USD 124 million
January 26th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales
Sales bounced back in the third quarter, up by +8% to USD 110 million affair a -22% decline in the second quarter. This brings the average quarterly growth up to -7%. We expect average growth to turn positive again, +9% in this next 12 months & sales to rise back to USD 153 million by the third quarter of 2021.
Cashflow
Cashflow receipts were lower & third quarter cashflow declined to USD 22 million from USD 60 million in the second quarter. Average quarterly cashflow is USD 31 million. Third quarter investment spending was low, USD 4 million & using this which combined with higher sales gives an average quarterly cashflow of USD 33 million in this next 12 months .
1 minute read
Sales
Sales bounced back in the third quarter, up by +8% to USD 110 million affair a -22% decline in the second quarter. This brings the average quarterly growth up to -7%. We expect average growth to turn positive again, +9% in this next 12 months & sales to rise back to USD 153 million by the third quarter of 2021.
Cashflow
Cashflow receipts were lower & third quarter cashflow declined to USD 22 million from USD 60 million in the second quarter. Average quarterly cashflow is USD 31 million. Third quarter investment spending was low, USD 4 million & using this which combined with higher sales gives an average quarterly cashflow of USD 33 million in this next 12 months .
Sales to grow, USD 131 million cashflow , a forecast 5.6% yield, much higher target price...
Balance sheet
Positive free cashflow in the last 12 months has brought the net cash minus total liabilities up to -USD 365 million from -USD 496 million a year ago. With our forecast for higher free cashflow & assuming there is a dividend payout of USD 46 million, the net cash will improve further to -USD 245 million in 12 months time.
Profit
Net profit was USD 13 million in the third quarter, down from USD 33 million in the second quarter. The cash cost ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales increased to 76%. We use the recent average cost ratio 73% to predict the next 12 months profit rises +11.7% to USD 93 million.
Value
POWR has started to pay out capital, USD 110 million so far. At the current market value of USD 832 million, it’s 7.6X capital paid, 1.6X sales, 0.7X assets, 1.2X equity with a 13.1% profitability & a 5.6% yield. Our cashflow forecast is USD 131 million. At 1.6% with a 0.4X adjustment this gives a higher target price of Rp2,908.
Positive free cashflow in the last 12 months has brought the net cash minus total liabilities up to -USD 365 million from -USD 496 million a year ago. With our forecast for higher free cashflow & assuming there is a dividend payout of USD 46 million, the net cash will improve further to -USD 245 million in 12 months time.
Profit
Net profit was USD 13 million in the third quarter, down from USD 33 million in the second quarter. The cash cost ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales increased to 76%. We use the recent average cost ratio 73% to predict the next 12 months profit rises +11.7% to USD 93 million.
Value
POWR has started to pay out capital, USD 110 million so far. At the current market value of USD 832 million, it’s 7.6X capital paid, 1.6X sales, 0.7X assets, 1.2X equity with a 13.1% profitability & a 5.6% yield. Our cashflow forecast is USD 131 million. At 1.6% with a 0.4X adjustment this gives a higher target price of Rp2,908.
