PNBN, other revenue surges
Target price Rp2,180
Last 12-month cashflow +Rp 6.7 trillion
February 18th,, 2021
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- Sales, thanks to strong other operating income, jumped by +28% in the third quarter to Rp 5.55 trillion after declining -5% in the second quarter, -10% in the first.
- Average quarterly growth is now at +4%.
- We predict +2% average quarterly growth in the next 12 months, sales to rise to Rp 6 trillion by the third quarter of 2021.
- Thanks to surging deposits, cashflow was a positive +Rp 6 trillion in the fourth quarter from -Rp 1.2 trillion in the second quarter.
- Last 12 months average quarterly Cashflow is Rp 1.7 trillion.
- We use average investment Cashflow of Rp 369 billion, which with higher sales gives an average quarterly Cashflow of Rp 1.05 trillion in the next 12 months.
Other revenue surges, cashflow positive, assets growing, higher target price...
- Higher sales was derived from a surge in the sales to assets ratio to 2.6% in the third quarter from 2.1% in the second quarter.
- Assets also grew by 2.6% in the third quarter. Average quarterly non cash asset growth is now at +0.5%...
- ...& we expect this to rise to +2% average quarterly growth in this next 12 months.
- With higher sales, net profit increased to Rp 993 billion in the third quarter from Rp 618 billion in the second quarter.
- The cash costs ratio of net profit add non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was low at 66%.
- We use 76% costs to predict a flat next 12 months profit of Rp 3.3 trillion
- PNBN has raised a net capital of Rp 10 trillion in the last five years.
- At the current market value of Rp 27.9 trillion, it’s 1.2X sales, 0.13X non cash assets, 0.62X equity with a 7.3% profitability & a 3.5% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is Rp 4.2 trillion. At 1.6% with a 0.2X adjustment, gives a higher target price, Rp2,180.