## PGAS, only 1.5X capital paid

Current, target price Rp1,255, 4,081 (+225%)

May 6th, 2021

1 minute read

Sales, expecting faster growth

Cashflow, average 60 million dollars

1 minute read

Sales, expecting faster growth

- Sales were almost unchanged in the first quarter at 733 million dollars, which is +1% compared to our forecast.
- This is after a 8% increase in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to -2%.
- We predict average growth of 7% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales to 940 million dollars by the first quarter of 2022.

Cashflow, average 60 million dollars

- Cashflow was positive 65 million dollars in the first quarter after negative -24 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- Average quarterly cashflow is now at 60 million dollars.
- We use higher investment spending of -75 million dollars, which with higher sales, gives a similar average quarterly cashflow of 57 million dollars in this next 12 months.

## Sales flat, cashflow positive again despite higher investment , expecting similar Cashflow ahead, only 1.5X capital paid, higher target price...

Balance sheet, slightly lower leverage

Profit, positive again

Value

- With positive cashflow, the net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -3,325 million dollars in the first quarter from -3,400 million dollars in the fourth quarter & -3,308 million dollars a year ago.
- With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of -62 million dollars...
- ...net cash will be -3,135 million dollars in 12 months time.

Profit, positive again

- Net profit was positive at 77 million dollars in the first quarter from -300 million dollars in the fourth quarter on lower non cash costs .
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was much lower at -75%.
- We use higher -85% costs, to predict a return to positive next 12 months profit of 207 million dollars.

Value

- PGAS cumulative net capital is at 1,226 million dollars from the last five years.
- At the current market value of 2,179 million dollars, based on forecasts it’s 1.47X capital paid, 0.61X sales, 0.11X assets, 0.69X equity, with a 6.5% profitability & a 2.8% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 227 million dollars. At 1.6% with a 0.5X adjustment, gives a 225% higher target price of 4,081 rupiah.