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MYOR, 100% upside
Current, target price Rp2,630, 5,250 (+100%)

May 5th , 2021
1 minute read

Sales, a new record
  • Sales increased by 6% in the first quarter to 7,335 billion rupiah, which is -2% compared to our forecast.
  • This is after a 6% increase in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to 8%.
  • We predict average growth of 3% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales to 8,264 billion rupiah by the first quarter of 2022.

Cashflow, higher too
  • Cashflow was higher at 1,342 billion rupiah in the first quarter after 567 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • Average quarterly cashflow is now at 723 billion rupiah.
  • We use flat investment spending of -180 billion rupiah, which with higher sales, gives a higher average quarterly cashflow of 783 billion rupiah in this next 12 months.

Sales new record, strong margins & cashflow, big payout coming, 100% upside...

Balance sheet, lower leverage
  • With positive cashflow, the net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -4,140 billion rupiah in the first quarter from -4,728 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter & -4,972 billion rupiah a year ago.
  • With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of -1,813 billion rupiah...
  • ...net cash will be -2,823 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Profit, strong margins
  • Net profit was higher at 845 billion rupiah in the first quarter from 508 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter including FX gains.
  • The cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was strong at -88%.
  • We use the same -88% costs, to predict a higher next 12 months profit of 3,022 billion rupiah.

Value 100% upside
  • MYOR cumulative net capital is at +3,286 billion rupiah from the last six years.
  • At the current market value of 58,806 billion rupiah, based on forecasts it’s 9.16X capital paid, 1.87X sales, 2.81X assets, 4.41X equity, with a 22.7% profitability & a 3.1% yield.
  • Our free cashflow forecast is 3,131 billion rupiah. At 1.6% with a 0.6X adjustment, gives a 100% higher target price of 5,250 rupiah.