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MYOR, capital payouts surge
🎯 📱 📈 Rp4,381
Last 12-month cashflow +Rp 1,720 billion ⬆️

November 9th, 2020
​⏰ 1 minute read

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Sales
Sales jumped in the third quarter by +14% from the second quarter after a +6% increase in the second quarter from first. At Rp 6.5 trillion, sales were 8% ahead of our forecast. Domestic sales led with +15% growth. We expect sales growth to continue to rise at a 9% rate, Rp 7.1 trillion by the third quarter next year.

Cashflow
With sales beating our expectations & driving up operating cashflow, free cashflow (ex working capital) was higher than we had forecast, Rp 440 billion. Our investment spending almost matched perfectly though. For this next 12 months we cut investment a bit more & this together with our sales forecast gives a similar average quarterly free cashflow of Rp 435 billion.

Sales jump, net cash ahead, soaring payouts, higher share price...

Data & financial model
Balance sheet
Despite the strong Cashflow, negative working capital pushed the net debt a bit higher to Rp 1.99 trillion. But that’s still much lower than the Rp 5.9 trillion a year ago. With our forecast cashflow & a dividend Rp 1.2 trillion the journey to net cash will continue with net debt down to Rp 760 billion in 12 months time.

Profit
With higher sales, net profit jumped to Rp 627 billion from Rp 13 billion in the second quarter, (Rp 449 billion excluding FX). The cash cost ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a % of sales was 90%. We use the same 90% to predict profit will rise to Rp 520 billion by third quarter 2021.

Value
MYOR has been paying capital, Rp 2.9 trillion the last five years. This should jump to Rp 4.6 trillion. At Rp 53.2 trillion, it’s 18.6X capital paid, 1.92X sales, 2.76X assets, 4.56X equity with a 17.2% profitability & a 2.3% yield. Our cashflow forecast is Rp 1.74 trillion. At 1.6% with a 0.9X adjustment gives a higher target price Rp4,381.
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