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MNCN, time for the shares to rise
🎯 📺 📈 Rp2,394
Last 12-month cashflow +Rp 1.5 trillion ⬆️
December 6th, 2020
1 minute read
Sales
Sales increased by +2% in the third quarter which brought the 12 month growth rate back to -1% from -18% in the second! At Rp 2 trillion, sales were 4% below our forecast:. Digital is still the fastest growth, up by +27% from the second quarter. We predict the next 12-month average sales growth rate will now rise to 5%.
Cashflow
The last 12-month cashflow is still strong at Rp 1.5 trillion, but the third quarter was lower at Rp 289 billion as investment spending & costs were higher again. We raise our forecast for investment spending & with higher sales our prediction for the average quarterly free cashflow in the next 12 months is slightly higher at Rp 319 billion.
1 minute read
Sales
Sales increased by +2% in the third quarter which brought the 12 month growth rate back to -1% from -18% in the second! At Rp 2 trillion, sales were 4% below our forecast:. Digital is still the fastest growth, up by +27% from the second quarter. We predict the next 12-month average sales growth rate will now rise to 5%.
Cashflow
The last 12-month cashflow is still strong at Rp 1.5 trillion, but the third quarter was lower at Rp 289 billion as investment spending & costs were higher again. We raise our forecast for investment spending & with higher sales our prediction for the average quarterly free cashflow in the next 12 months is slightly higher at Rp 319 billion.
Sales returning to growth, good cashflow, debt reducing, 3% yield, higher share price...
Balance sheet
Despite the cashflow being a bit lower, it is finally reducing the net debt which is now at Rp 3.2 trillion compared to Rp 4 trillion at the beginning of last year. With our free cashflow forecast combined with a dividend payout of Rp 556 billion, the net debt will drop further to Rp 2.5 trillion in 12 months time.
Profit
Despite higher sales , net profit was lower at Rp 441 billion in the third quarter from FX losses & higher costs. The cash cost ratio, net profit add depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was 78% from 69% in the second quarter. We use the average 74% to predict a next 12 months profit, Rp 1.82 trillion.
Value
MNCN has paid out capital of Rp 4.8 trillion in the last five years. At a current market value of Rp 19.2 trillion, it’s 2.15X sales, 2.72X assets, 1.25X equity with a profitability of 12.1% & a yield of 2.9%. Our cashflow forecast is Rp 1.25 trillion, at 1.6% with a 0.55X adjustment gives a higher target price of Rp2,394.
Despite the cashflow being a bit lower, it is finally reducing the net debt which is now at Rp 3.2 trillion compared to Rp 4 trillion at the beginning of last year. With our free cashflow forecast combined with a dividend payout of Rp 556 billion, the net debt will drop further to Rp 2.5 trillion in 12 months time.
Profit
Despite higher sales , net profit was lower at Rp 441 billion in the third quarter from FX losses & higher costs. The cash cost ratio, net profit add depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was 78% from 69% in the second quarter. We use the average 74% to predict a next 12 months profit, Rp 1.82 trillion.
Value
MNCN has paid out capital of Rp 4.8 trillion in the last five years. At a current market value of Rp 19.2 trillion, it’s 2.15X sales, 2.72X assets, 1.25X equity with a profitability of 12.1% & a yield of 2.9%. Our cashflow forecast is Rp 1.25 trillion, at 1.6% with a 0.55X adjustment gives a higher target price of Rp2,394.
