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MDKA, a -40% lower target price
Current 3,650 Target 2,198 -40%
December 5th 2021
1 minute read
Sales jumped 42%
Costs 13 points higher
Cashflow, negative on investment in shares fund
Balance sheet, higher leverage
Valuation, expensive, a -40% lower target price
1 minute read
Sales jumped 42%
- Sales jumped 42% in the third quarter to 126 million dollars vs our 98 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 35% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 141 million dollars in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs 13 points higher
- The cash cost ratio was at -62% in the third quarter giving a 15 million dollars net profit.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -78% now.
- We use the latest -62% cost ratio to predict a 21 million dollars profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow, negative on investment in shares fund
- Free cashflow was negative -39 million dollars in the third quarter with a large negative -115 million dollars investment Cashflow from a large investment into an offshore equity fund….
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -16 million dollars now.
- We assume lower -17 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives a 30 million dollars Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, higher leverage
- Cash declined from 278 to 203 million dollars in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined from 455 to 413 million dollars so net cash worsened from -177 to -210 million dollars
- With our forecast cashflow & a -23 million dollars equity payout net cash will be -96 million dollars in 12 months time.
Valuation, expensive, a -40% lower target price
- MDKA capital from the last 27 quarters improved to -497 million dollars in the third quarter with a -74 million dollars liabilities payment & will be -422 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 5,971 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 5.20 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our 12 month cashflow forecast is 112 million dollars which means an 53 X valuation. A 32 X valuation gives a -40% lower target price of 2,198 rupiah.
