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MBTO, a 17% higher target price
Current 140 Target 164 +17%
November 9th 2021
1 minute read
Sales jumped 38%
Costs lower
Cashflow positive on investment gains
Balance sheet, higher leverage
Valuation, a 17% higher target price
1 minute read
Sales jumped 38%
- Sales jumped 38% in the third quarter to 56 billion rupiah vs our 45 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 12% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 88 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs lower
- The cash cost ratio was lower at -124% in the third quarter giving a better-17 billion rupiah net profit.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is still much higher at -143% now.
- We use an optimistic -98% cost ratio to predict a -5 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow positive on investment gains
- Free cashflow was positive 55 billion rupiah in the third quarter thanks to 145 billion rupiah investment gins.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 13 billion rupiah now.
- We assume 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 2 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, higher leverage
- Cash jumped from 3 to 27 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased from 431 to 474 billion rupiah so net cash worsened from -428 to -447 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -440 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, a 17% higher target price
- MBTO capital from the last 27 quarters improved to -90 billion rupiah in the third quarter & will be -82 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 150 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.15 X assets with a 130 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 7 billion rupiah which means an 20 X valuation. A 21 X valuation gives a slightly higher 17% target price of 164 rupiah.
