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MBSS less than capital paid
🎯 🚣♀️ 📈 Rp1,152
Last 12-months cashflow +USD 2 million ⬇️
December 15th, 2020
1 minute read
Sales
Sales were down another -6% in the third quarter, the fourth quarter in a row of negative growth. Sales USD 11.8 million was below our forecast USD 13 million. But this hides a recovery as tug+barge sales jumped +45%, cranes +1,000%! We predict sales will rise from the fourth quarter back to USD 18.1 million by the third quarter 2021.
Cashflow
Cashflow was also slightly negative at -USD 1 million in the third quarter vs our forecast of positive +USD 1 million. We expect investment spending to now slow slightly & together with higher sales, this predicts an average quarterly cashflow of +USD 1 million in this next 12 months & +USD 2 million by the third quarter of next year.
1 minute read
Sales
Sales were down another -6% in the third quarter, the fourth quarter in a row of negative growth. Sales USD 11.8 million was below our forecast USD 13 million. But this hides a recovery as tug+barge sales jumped +45%, cranes +1,000%! We predict sales will rise from the fourth quarter back to USD 18.1 million by the third quarter 2021.
Cashflow
Cashflow was also slightly negative at -USD 1 million in the third quarter vs our forecast of positive +USD 1 million. We expect investment spending to now slow slightly & together with higher sales, this predicts an average quarterly cashflow of +USD 1 million in this next 12 months & +USD 2 million by the third quarter of next year.
Sales turning up, cashflow will be positive, growing net cash, market value less than capital paid, higher share price...
Balance sheet
The recent slightly higher investment spending has been paid for by some positive working capital. This has meant that the previous balance sheet net debt turned to net cash of USD 6 million as of the third quarter. With our forecast positive cashflow & no dividend payment, net cash will rise further to USD 10 million in 12 months time.
Profit
There was a net loss again of -USD 3 million in the third quarter, from -USD 2.3 million in the second. The cash cost ratio net profit add depreciation minus sales as a percent of soles was higher at 78%. We use the recent average 76% to predict the next 12 months net loss will be at -USD 7.6 million.
Value
MBSS has paid out capital of USD 70 million in the last five years. At the current market value USD 58 million, it’s 0.81X capital paid, 0.92X sales, 0.28X assets, 0.36X equity with no profitability & no yield yet. Our free cashflow forecast is USD 4.6 million. At 1.6% with a 0.5X adjustment gives a higher target price of Rp1,152.
The recent slightly higher investment spending has been paid for by some positive working capital. This has meant that the previous balance sheet net debt turned to net cash of USD 6 million as of the third quarter. With our forecast positive cashflow & no dividend payment, net cash will rise further to USD 10 million in 12 months time.
Profit
There was a net loss again of -USD 3 million in the third quarter, from -USD 2.3 million in the second. The cash cost ratio net profit add depreciation minus sales as a percent of soles was higher at 78%. We use the recent average 76% to predict the next 12 months net loss will be at -USD 7.6 million.
Value
MBSS has paid out capital of USD 70 million in the last five years. At the current market value USD 58 million, it’s 0.81X capital paid, 0.92X sales, 0.28X assets, 0.36X equity with no profitability & no yield yet. Our free cashflow forecast is USD 4.6 million. At 1.6% with a 0.5X adjustment gives a higher target price of Rp1,152.
