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MBSS, a 10% yield
Current, target price Rp414, 2,853 (+589%)

April 28th, 2021
1 minute read

Sales, up again
  • Sales increased by 8% in the first quarter to 15.2 million dollars , which is +8% compared to our forecast.
  • This is after a 19% increase in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to -1%.
  • We predict average growth of 8% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales to 20.2 million dollars by the first quarter of 2022.

Cashflow, average 3 million dollars
  • Cashflow was positive 2 million dollars in the first quarter but lower than positive 6 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
  • Average quarterly cashflow is now positive 2.4 million dollars.
  • We use flat investment spending of -0.9 million dollars, which with higher sales, gives a higher average quarterly cashflow of 3.6 million dollars in this next 12 months.

Sales up again, cashflow lower but still around 3 million dollars a quarter, now net cash! Expecting a 10% yield & a much much higher target price...

Balance sheet, net cash!
  • With positive cashflow, the net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was 0 million dollars in the first quarter from -3 million dollars in the fourth quarter & -7 million dollars a year ago.
  • With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of -5.4 million dollars...
  • ...net cash will be positive 8.9 million dollars in 12 months time.

Profit, a lower loss forecast
  • Net loss was lower at -1.4 million dollars in the first quarter from -7.5 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
  • The cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was stable at -76%.
  • We use the same -76% costs, to predict a much lower next 12 months loss of -2.5 million dollars.

Value , a 10% yield
  • MBSS cumulative net capital is at +89 million dollars for the last six years.
  • At the current market value of 52 million dollars, based on forecasts it’s only 0.55X capital paid, 0.71X sales, 0.30X assets, 0.35X equity, with no profitability & a 10.4% yield.
  • Our free cashflow forecast is 14.3 million dollars. At 1.6% with a 0.4X adjustment, gives a 589% higher target price of 2,853 rupiah.