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MAPI, a 314% higher target price
Current, target price 670, 2,773 (+314%)
August 4th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales up strong
Costs low
1 minute read
Sales up strong
- Sales jumped by 12% in the second quarter 4,822 X billion rupiah which is just below our forecast 4,960 billion rupiah.
- This brings the average quarterly growth to 26%
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 6,022 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2022.
Costs low
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add on cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales improved to -83% in the second quarter & profit jumped to 270 billion rupiah.
- Average quarterly costs are now at -86%.
- We use the average -86% costs to predict a 266 billion rupiah net profit in the second quarter of 2022.
Cashflow average rising
Balance sheet, lower leverage
Value, a 314% higher target price
- Cashflow was positive 193 billion rupiah with investment spending of -95 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Average quarterly Cashflow has now improved to 368 billion rupiah.
- We use the same -95 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 534 billion rupiah cashflow in the second quarter 2022.
Balance sheet, lower leverage
- Cash declined in the second quarter from 2,190 to 2,110 billion rupiah.
- Liabilities also declined from 11,083 to 10,606 billion rupiah so the net cash improved from -8,893 to -8,496 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast positive cashflow & a -297 billion rupiah equity payout, the net cash will improve to -6,202 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Value, a 314% higher target price
- MAPI capital from the last six years improved to 1,742 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- At the current market value of 11,080 billion rupiah, based on our forecasts, it’s at 0.51 sales & only 0.69 assets with a 3% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 1,834 billion rupiah. At 25X (a 4% yield), this gives a 314% higher target price of 2,773 rupiah.
