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MAPI
MAPI, net cash take 3
🎯 👗 📈 Rp1,358
Last 12 months free cashflow -Rp824bn ⬇️
August 24th, 2020
⏰ 1 minute read
⏰ 1 minute read
Watch the 3 minute explainer using the data file & model ⬇️
Sales
Sales growth was down -61% compared to a year ago in the 2Q which is well below our forecast & the first quarter of negative sales growth in 5 years. Retail sales were down -67%, restaurants -62% & department stores -44%. We expect a recovery from the 3Q which results in -6.5% growth in the next 12 months to Rp17.2tn.
Cashflow
Cashflow in the 2Q bounced back to a positive Rp389bn excluding working capital, after the very negative first quarter. Because of that first quarter, the average of the last 12 months is still a negative Rp206bn. With our forecast for a sales recovery & continued low investment spending, the next 12 months cashflow will be +Rp225bn per quarter.
Sales growth was down -61% compared to a year ago in the 2Q which is well below our forecast & the first quarter of negative sales growth in 5 years. Retail sales were down -67%, restaurants -62% & department stores -44%. We expect a recovery from the 3Q which results in -6.5% growth in the next 12 months to Rp17.2tn.
Cashflow
Cashflow in the 2Q bounced back to a positive Rp389bn excluding working capital, after the very negative first quarter. Because of that first quarter, the average of the last 12 months is still a negative Rp206bn. With our forecast for a sales recovery & continued low investment spending, the next 12 months cashflow will be +Rp225bn per quarter.
Sales recovery, less investment, positive cashflow, heading back to net cash, re-rating.
Balance sheet
The balance sheet is unfortunately back in large Rp5.46tn net debt after getting so close to net cash with the previously positive cashflow. But that’s a bit misleading as the debt is from the rental payments put into lease liabilities. With our forecast for positive cashflow in the next 12 months, & no dividend, net debt will fall to Rp4.57tn.
Profit
While the sales declined, profit turned to a large Rp483bn loss. The cash cost ratio of net profit add depreciation minus sales as a % of sales was lower (as rent turned to depreciation) at 80% bringing the last 12 months ratio to 89%. We use the 89% to predict a much higher (+174%) next 12 months profit of Rp280bn.
Value
MAPI current market value is at Rp11.6tn. That’s 0.67X our sales forecast, 0.66X the value of the total assets & 1.68X the equity with a profitability of 4.1%. That’s quite cheap. Yield is forecast at 0%. We use our 1.6% cashflow valuation with a 60% discount because of the new debt which gives a much higher target price of Rp1,358.
The balance sheet is unfortunately back in large Rp5.46tn net debt after getting so close to net cash with the previously positive cashflow. But that’s a bit misleading as the debt is from the rental payments put into lease liabilities. With our forecast for positive cashflow in the next 12 months, & no dividend, net debt will fall to Rp4.57tn.
Profit
While the sales declined, profit turned to a large Rp483bn loss. The cash cost ratio of net profit add depreciation minus sales as a % of sales was lower (as rent turned to depreciation) at 80% bringing the last 12 months ratio to 89%. We use the 89% to predict a much higher (+174%) next 12 months profit of Rp280bn.
Value
MAPI current market value is at Rp11.6tn. That’s 0.67X our sales forecast, 0.66X the value of the total assets & 1.68X the equity with a profitability of 4.1%. That’s quite cheap. Yield is forecast at 0%. We use our 1.6% cashflow valuation with a 60% discount because of the new debt which gives a much higher target price of Rp1,358.
