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MAPI, a 68% higher target price
Current 825 Target 1,389 +68%

November 20th 2021
1 minute read

Sales slumped-39%

• Sales slumped -39% in the third quarter to 2,946 billion rupiah vs our 4,870 billion rupiah forecast.
• This brings the quarterly average to 1% growth.
• We predict average growth of 8% to bring sales to 3,897 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.

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Costs 13 points higher

• The cash cost ratio was 13 points higher at -96% in the third quarter giving a negative -403 billion rupiah net profit.
• The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -86% now.
• We use the cashflow average -86% cost ratio to predict a 25 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.

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Cashflow, still quite strong

• Free cashflow was still quite strong at 155 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -78 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
• Average quarterly Cashflow is at 393 billion rupiah now.
• We assume -78 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 312 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.

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Balance sheet, lower leverage

• Cash declined from 2,110 to 2,099 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
• Liabilities declined from 10,606 to 10,423 billion rupiah so net cash improved from -8,496 to -8,324 billion rupiah.
• With our forecast cashflow & a -205 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -6,788 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Valuation, a capital payout & 68% higher target price

• MAPI capital from the last 27 quarters was higher at 1,466 billion rupiah in the third quarter with a -153 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 2,511 billion rupiah in12 months time.
• At the current market value of 13,650 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.91 X assets with a 14 years payback & a 2% yield.
• Our cashflow forecast is 1,044 billion rupiah which means an 13 X valuation. A 22 X valuation gives a 68% higher target price of 1,389 rupiah.

Data file & model