Other stocks here
MAPI, net cash is back on track
🎯 ☕️ 📈 Rp1,636
Last 12-month cashflow -Rp 1.99 trillion ⬇️
November 27th, 2020
⏰ 1 minute read
⏰ 1 minute read
Sales
After two negative growth quarters, sales jumped by +62% in the third. At Rp 3.4 trillion, sales were 11% below our forecast. Sales growth was led by MAPB F&B, +77%, then MAPA +69% with department stores +17% from the second quarter. We expect sales to continue to recover to reach Rp 4.63 trillion by the third quarter of next year.
Cashflow
Cashflow excluding working capital continues to improve as investment spending is still low. Third quarter cashflow was still negative -R 79 billion, but less compared to second quarter -Rp 457 billion. We expect investment spending to remain low & together with higher sales to bring average quarterly cashflow back to a positive Rp 361 billion in this next 12 months.
After two negative growth quarters, sales jumped by +62% in the third. At Rp 3.4 trillion, sales were 11% below our forecast. Sales growth was led by MAPB F&B, +77%, then MAPA +69% with department stores +17% from the second quarter. We expect sales to continue to recover to reach Rp 4.63 trillion by the third quarter of next year.
Cashflow
Cashflow excluding working capital continues to improve as investment spending is still low. Third quarter cashflow was still negative -R 79 billion, but less compared to second quarter -Rp 457 billion. We expect investment spending to remain low & together with higher sales to bring average quarterly cashflow back to a positive Rp 361 billion in this next 12 months.
Sales recovery, less investment, positive cashflow, heading back to net cash, re-rating.
Balance sheet
The net debt which has informally increased again this year because of the slower sales & resulting return to negative cashflow was flat at Rp 1.2 trillion in the third quarter. With positive free cashflow forecast & a dividend payout of Rp 182 billion, the balance sheet will finally reach net cash of Rp 67 billion in 12 months time.
Profit
The net loss which has appeared as a result of slower sales & higher depreciation halved in the third quarter to -Rp 217 billion . The cash cost ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as percentage of sales was 89%. We use the same 89% to predict the loss reduced to -Rp 96 billion by third quarter next year.
Value
MAPI net capital raised has improved to Rp 61 billion & will now turn to net capital payer. At Rp 14.39 trillion market value, it’s 0.86X sales, 0.83X assets, 2.46X equity with no profitability & a 1.3% yield. Our cashflow forecast is increased to Rp 1.44 trillion. At 1.6% with a large 0.3X adjustment, gives a much higher target Rp1,636.
The net debt which has informally increased again this year because of the slower sales & resulting return to negative cashflow was flat at Rp 1.2 trillion in the third quarter. With positive free cashflow forecast & a dividend payout of Rp 182 billion, the balance sheet will finally reach net cash of Rp 67 billion in 12 months time.
Profit
The net loss which has appeared as a result of slower sales & higher depreciation halved in the third quarter to -Rp 217 billion . The cash cost ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as percentage of sales was 89%. We use the same 89% to predict the loss reduced to -Rp 96 billion by third quarter next year.
Value
MAPI net capital raised has improved to Rp 61 billion & will now turn to net capital payer. At Rp 14.39 trillion market value, it’s 0.86X sales, 0.83X assets, 2.46X equity with no profitability & a 1.3% yield. Our cashflow forecast is increased to Rp 1.44 trillion. At 1.6% with a large 0.3X adjustment, gives a much higher target Rp1,636.
