Picture
Other stocks here

MAPI, average cashflow rising to new-highs
Current, target price 770, 3,160 (+310%)

May 15th, 2021
1 minute read

Sales, down seasonally
  • Sales declined seasonally by -8% in the first quarter to 4,313 billion rupiah, which is -6% compared to our forecast.
  • This is after a 39% increase in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to 9%.
  • We predict average growth of 6% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales to 5,338 billion rupiah by the first quarter of 2022.

Cashflow, average rising to new highs
  • Cashflow was negative -299 billion rupiah in the first quarter after positive 2,053 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • Average quarterly cashflow is now positive 463 billion rupiah.
  • We use slightly higher (but still low) investment spending of -23 billion rupiah, which with higher sales, gives a higher average quarterly cashflow of 523 billion rupiah in this next 12 months.

Sales seasonally lower, margins up, cashflow negative, but average rising to new highs, only 0.8X assets, higher target price...

Balance sheet, expecting lower leverage
  • With negative cashflow, the net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -8,893 billion rupiah in the first quarter from -8,363 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter but improved from -10,324 billion rupiah a year ago.
  • With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of -272 billion rupiah...
  • ...the net leverage will be -6,538 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Profit, costs down, margins up
  • Net profit was lower at 19 billion rupiah in the first quarter from 87 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • The cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was down to -87%.
  • We use the same -87% costs, to predict a next 12 months profit of 561 billion rupiah.

Value, only 0.8X assets
  • MAPI cumulative net capital is at +915 billion rupiah from the last six years.
  • At the current market value of 12,738 billion rupiah, based on forecasts it’s 3.58X capital paid, 0.61X sales, 0.80X assets, 1.86X equity, with an 8.2% profitability & a 2.1% yield.
  • Our free cashflow forecast is 2,091 billion rupiah. At 1.6% with a 0.4X adjustment, gives a 310% higher target price of 3,160 rupiah.