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MAPA, a -15% lower target price
Current 2,810 Target 2,392 -15%
November 20th 2021
1 minute read
Sales declined -42%
Costs 10 points higher
Cashflow down
Balance sheet, higher leverage
Valuation, a -15% lower target price
1 minute read
Sales declined -42%
- Sales declined -42% in the third quarter to 931 billion rupiah vs our 1,545 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 12% to bring sales to 1,449 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs 10 points higher
- The cash cost ratio was 10 points higher at -95% in the third quarter giving a negative -107 billion rupiah net profit.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -89% now.
- We use the cashflow average -89% cost ratio to predict a 9 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow down
- Free cashflow dropped to 35 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -22 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 85 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -22 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 85 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, higher leverage
- Cash increased from 413 to 489 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased from 2,292 to 2,380 billion rupiah so net cash worsened from -1,879 to -1,891 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -3 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -1,434 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, a -15% lower target price
- MAPA capital from the last 18 quarters declined to 659 billion rupiah in the third quarter with a 50 billion rupiah liabilities increase but will be 895 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 8,010 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.65 X assets with a 19 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 253 billion rupiah which means an 32 X valuation. A 27 X valuation gives a -15% lower target price of 2,392 rupiah.
