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MAPA, very cheap
Current, target price Rp2,152, 7,670 (+256%%)
April 18th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales, even stronger growth
Cashflow, jumped
1 minute read
Sales, even stronger growth
- Sales jumped by another 62% in the fourth quarter to 1,649 billion rupiah which is 30% above our forecast.
- This is even faster than the 56% growth in the third quarter & brings the average quarterly growth to 8%.
- We precut an average quarterly growth of 5% in this next 12 months & sales of 1,993 billion rupiah by the fourth quarter of 2021.
Cashflow, jumped
- With stronger sales, cashflow jumped to 342 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter, from -55 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The quarterly average cashflow is now -33 billion rupiah.
- We expect a higher 80 billion rupiah a quarter investment spending, which with higher sales gives a positive average quarterly Cashflow of +175 billion rupiah in this next 12 months.
Sales growth even stronger than third quarter, strong cashflow, lower leverage, cheap with a 4.5% yield, higher target price...
Balance sheet, lower leverage
Profit, strong margins
Value, very cheap
- With positive cashflow, the net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -1,794 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter from -2,317 billion rupiah in the third quarter & -513 billion rupiah a year ago (leases).
- With our forecast positive cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of 97 billion rupiah...
- ...the net cash will be -1,191 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Profit, strong margins
- Net profit was 118 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter from a -39 billion rupiah loss in the third quarter.
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was down to 82%.
- We use an average 86% costs to predict a much more positive next 12 months profit of 323 billion rupiah.
Value, very cheap
- MAPA has paid out capital of 716 billion rupiah in the last four years.
- At the current market value of 2,155 billion rupiah, it’s at only 3.01X capital paid, 0.29X sales, 0.42X assets, 0.67X equity, with a 10.0% profitability & a 4.5% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 699 billion rupiah. At 1.6% with a 0.5X adjustment gives a 256% higher target price of 7,670 rupiah.