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MAPA, shares to catch up with capital paid
Current, target price Rpx, x (x)
May 16th , 2021
1 minute read
Sales, back down
Cashflow, to turn positive
1 minute read
Sales, back down
- Sales declined by -23% in the first quarter to 1,276 billion rupiah, which is -19% compared to our forecast.
- This is after the large 62% increase in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to 10%.
- We predict average growth of 7% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales to 1,575 billion rupiah by the first quarter of 2022.
Cashflow, to turn positive
- Cashflow was negative again -65 billion rupiah in the first quarter after positive 296 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter, despite low investment spending.
- Average quarterly cashflow is still a small negative -23 billion rupiah.
- We use higher investment spending of -56 billion rupiah, which with higher sales, gives a positive average quarterly cashflow of 132 billion rupiah in this next 12 months.
Sales back down, margins lower & cashflow negative, but expecting positive cashflow, only 2X capital paid, the capital payouts have increased & the shares should catch up...
Balance sheet, slightly higher
Profit, average turning positive
Value, shares to catch up with capital paid
- With negative cashflow, the net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -1,937 billion rupiah in the first quarter from -1,794 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter & -1,577 billion rupiah a year ago (leases).
- With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of -56 billion rupiah...
- ...net leverage will improve to -1,411 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Profit, average turning positive
- Net profit was down at 1 billion rupiah in the first quarter from 118 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was up to -88%.
- We use the same -88% costs, to predict a positive next 12 months profit of 188 billion rupiah.
Value, shares to catch up with capital paid
- MAPA cumulative net capital is up again to +631 billion rupiah from the last four years.
- At the current market value of 2,303 billion rupiah, based on forecasts it’s only 2.15X capital paid, 0.35X sales, 0.45X assets, 0.73X equity, with a 6.0% profitability & a 2.4% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 582.1 billion rupiah. At 1.6% with a 0.45X adjustment, gives a 150% higher target price of 5,743 rupiah.
