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MAPA
MAPA, will he up & running again soon
🎯🏃📈 Rp6,797
Last 12 months free cashflow -Rp100bn ⬆️
August 25th, 2020
⏰ 1 minute read
⏰ 1 minute read
Watch the 3 minute explainer using the data file & model ⬇️
Sales
Sales growth was sharply lower at -67% from a year ago in the 2Q which way below our forecast; the second quarter in a row of negative sales growth. Retail sales were down -69%, non retail were down -13%. We expect a sharp recovery from the 3Q onwards which results in 2.9% growth in the next 12 months to Rp6.27tn.
Cashflow
Cashflow in the 2Q was positive again at Rp165bn excluding working capital. While the last 12 months average quarterly cashflow is -Rp25bn. Cashflow has been drifting lower to negative as sales growth slowed. With our forecast for sales growth in the next 12 months, we also get a much higher next 12 months average free cashflow of +Rp129bn per quarter.
Sales growth was sharply lower at -67% from a year ago in the 2Q which way below our forecast; the second quarter in a row of negative sales growth. Retail sales were down -69%, non retail were down -13%. We expect a sharp recovery from the 3Q onwards which results in 2.9% growth in the next 12 months to Rp6.27tn.
Cashflow
Cashflow in the 2Q was positive again at Rp165bn excluding working capital. While the last 12 months average quarterly cashflow is -Rp25bn. Cashflow has been drifting lower to negative as sales growth slowed. With our forecast for sales growth in the next 12 months, we also get a much higher next 12 months average free cashflow of +Rp129bn per quarter.
A sales & cashflow recovery, a dividend & lower debt, higher shares ...
Balance sheet
The balance sheet has dropped into net debt just the same as the other group companies because of the new rental lease liability. As a result, net debt was at Rp644bn in the 2Q. With our forecast for higher positive free cashflow plus a small dividend payment of Rp25bn, the net debt will shrink to Rp153bn in 12 months time.
Profit
With the sharp decline in sales, 2Q net profit was a loss -Rp147bn as depreciation increased from the new rental lease asset/liability. The cash cost ratio, net profit add depreciation minus sales as % of sales was 100% in the 2Q & 91% for the last 12 months. We use 91% to forecast a next 12 moths profit Rp325bn, +29%.
Value
MAPA current market value is at Rp6,841bn. That’s 1.09X our sales forecast, 1.26X the value of the total assets & 2.13X the equity with a profitability of 8%. That’s reasonably cheap. Yield is forecast at 0.4%. We use our 1.6% cashflow valuation with a 40% discount because of coming debt recovery which gives a much higher target price of Rp6,797.
The balance sheet has dropped into net debt just the same as the other group companies because of the new rental lease liability. As a result, net debt was at Rp644bn in the 2Q. With our forecast for higher positive free cashflow plus a small dividend payment of Rp25bn, the net debt will shrink to Rp153bn in 12 months time.
Profit
With the sharp decline in sales, 2Q net profit was a loss -Rp147bn as depreciation increased from the new rental lease asset/liability. The cash cost ratio, net profit add depreciation minus sales as % of sales was 100% in the 2Q & 91% for the last 12 months. We use 91% to forecast a next 12 moths profit Rp325bn, +29%.
Value
MAPA current market value is at Rp6,841bn. That’s 1.09X our sales forecast, 1.26X the value of the total assets & 2.13X the equity with a profitability of 8%. That’s reasonably cheap. Yield is forecast at 0.4%. We use our 1.6% cashflow valuation with a 40% discount because of coming debt recovery which gives a much higher target price of Rp6,797.
