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MAPA, cash will return post investments
🎯 🏃♀️ 📈 Rp5,702
Last 12-month cashflow -Rp 622 billion ⬇️
November 28th, 2020
1 minute read
Sales
After two very negative growth quarters, sales rebounded by +56% in the third quarter from the second quarter. The sales at Rp 1.02 trillion was 23% below our optimistic forecast. The cashflow receipts had an even bigger jump of +68%! We expect sales to continue to recover back to Rp 1.5 trillion by the third quarter of next year, 2021.
Cashflow
Cashflow ex working capital improved to a negative -Rp 85 billion from -Rp 153 billion in the second quarter & -Rp 468 billion in the first. There’s been several acquisitions which increased investment spending. We now expect investment spending to reduce & with higher sales this will bring average quarterly cashflow to a positive Rp 93 billion this next 12 months.
1 minute read
Sales
After two very negative growth quarters, sales rebounded by +56% in the third quarter from the second quarter. The sales at Rp 1.02 trillion was 23% below our optimistic forecast. The cashflow receipts had an even bigger jump of +68%! We expect sales to continue to recover back to Rp 1.5 trillion by the third quarter of next year, 2021.
Cashflow
Cashflow ex working capital improved to a negative -Rp 85 billion from -Rp 153 billion in the second quarter & -Rp 468 billion in the first. There’s been several acquisitions which increased investment spending. We now expect investment spending to reduce & with higher sales this will bring average quarterly cashflow to a positive Rp 93 billion this next 12 months.
Sales recovery, cashflow will return to positive post acquisitions, net cash will be back, cheap valuation, higher target price...
Balance sheet
Because of the investments & negative cashflow this year, the balance sheet has turned from net cash to net debt in the third quarter, Rp 39 billion. But with our forecast lower investment spending & positive cashflow plus a dividend of Rp 13 billion, the balance sheet will return to a net cash Rp 320 billion in 12 months time.
Profit
Depreciation from leases is still high but losses improved too to -Rp 39 billion from -Rp 147 billion in the second quarter. The cash cost ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus saws as a % of sales improved to 90%. We use 89% as sales recover to predict a return to net profit Rp 27 billion this 12 months.
Value
MAPA is a capital payer. Payments have risen again in the third quarter to Rp 686 billion. At Rp 2.6 trillion, it’s 3.81X capital paid, 0.47X sales, 0.46X assets, 0.91X equity with a 1% profitability & a 0.5% yield. Our cashflow forecast is Rp 372 billion. At 1.6% with a 0.7X adjustment because of net cash, gives a higher target Rp5,702.
Because of the investments & negative cashflow this year, the balance sheet has turned from net cash to net debt in the third quarter, Rp 39 billion. But with our forecast lower investment spending & positive cashflow plus a dividend of Rp 13 billion, the balance sheet will return to a net cash Rp 320 billion in 12 months time.
Profit
Depreciation from leases is still high but losses improved too to -Rp 39 billion from -Rp 147 billion in the second quarter. The cash cost ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus saws as a % of sales improved to 90%. We use 89% as sales recover to predict a return to net profit Rp 27 billion this 12 months.
Value
MAPA is a capital payer. Payments have risen again in the third quarter to Rp 686 billion. At Rp 2.6 trillion, it’s 3.81X capital paid, 0.47X sales, 0.46X assets, 0.91X equity with a 1% profitability & a 0.5% yield. Our cashflow forecast is Rp 372 billion. At 1.6% with a 0.7X adjustment because of net cash, gives a higher target Rp5,702.
