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LSIP, a 10% yield
Current, target price 1,130, 4,967 (+340%)
August 13th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales down surprisingly
Costs up
1 minute read
Sales down surprisingly
- Sales surprisingly declined by -18% in the second quarter to 981 billion rupiah which is far below our forecast 1,315 billion rupiah.
- This brings the average quarterly growth to 12%.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,231 billion rupiah in the second quarter of 2022.
Costs up
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales increased to -71% in the second quarter & profit declined to 204 billion rupiah.
- Average quarterly costs are now at -66%.
- We use lower -67% costs to predict a 329 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter of 2022.
Cashflow down
Balance sheet, higher net cash
Value,, a 10% yield
- Cashflow was down to 289 billion rupiah with investment spending of -72 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Average quarterly Cashflow improved slightly to 296 billion rupiah.
- We use the same -72 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 338 billion rupiah cashflow in the second quarter of t2022.
Balance sheet, higher net cash
- Cash increased from 2,401 to 2,685 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined from 1,858 to 1,816 billion rupiah so net cash increased again from 543 to 869 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & an -793 billion rupiah equity payout, net cash will be 1,431 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Value,, a 10% yield
- LSIP capital from the last six years was flat at 1,462 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- At the current market value of 7,707 billion rupiah, based on our forecasts, it’s at 1.56X sales & 0.65X assets with a 10% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 1,355 billion rupiah. At 25X (a 4% yield), this gives a 340% higher target price of 4,967 rupiah.
