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LSIP, a 122% higher target price
Current 1,175 Target 2,613 +122%
December 2nd 2021
1 minute read
Sales jumped 18%
Costs 2 points lower, annual profit heading above 1 trillion rupiah
Cashflow back above 300 billion rupiah
Balance sheet, higher net cash
Valuation, 8% yield, 122% higher target price
1 minute read
Sales jumped 18%
- Sales jumped 18% in the third quarter to 1,162 billion rupiah vs our 1,178 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 18% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,341 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs 2 points lower, annual profit heading above 1 trillion rupiah
- The cash cost ratio was 2 points lower at -69% in the third quarter giving a higher 204 to 251 billion rupiah net profit.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -62% now.
- We use the latest -69% cost ratio to predict a 306 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow back above 300 billion rupiah
- Free cashflow was up from 289 to 308 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -83 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 332 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -83 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 330 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, higher net cash
- Cash increased from 2,685 to 2,848 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased from 1,816 to 1,851 billion rupiah so net cash increased from 869 to 997 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -694 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be 1,557 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, 8% yield, 122% higher target price
- LSIP capital from the last 27 quarters increased to 1,599 billion rupiah in the third quarter with a -136 billion rupiah equity payout & will be a much higher 2,636 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 8,457 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.71 X assets with a 7 years payback & an 8% yield.
- Our 12 month cashflow forecast is 1,254 billion rupiah which means an 7 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a 122% higher target price of 2,613 rupiah.
