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LPPF, a 6% yield
Current, target price 2,570, 5,258 (+105%)
August 29th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales double
Costs improving
1 minute read
Sales double
- Sales jumped by 96% in the second quarter to 1,456 billion rupiah which is slightly below our forecast 1,482 billion rupiah.
- This brings the average quarterly growth to 40%.
- We predict average growth of 21% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,960 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2022.
Costs improving
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was down seasonally at -33% in the second quarter & profit soared to 629 billion rupiah.
- Average quarterly costs are now at -95%.
- We use lower -70% costs as sales rise to predict a 508 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter of 2022.
Cashflow very positive
Balance sheet, lower leverage
Value, a 6% yield
- Cashflow was 1,118 billion rupiah with investment spending of -22 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Average quarterly Cashflow has now improved to 504 billion rupiah.
- We use the same -22 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 230 billion rupiah average cashflow in the next 12 months.
Balance sheet, lower leverage
- Cash jumped from 295 to 1,018 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined from 5,891 to 5,313 billion rupiah so net cash improved from -5,596 to -4,295 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -375 billion rupiah equity payout, net cash will be -4,327 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Value, a 6% yield
- LPPF capital from the last six years increased to 8,607 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- At the current market value of 6,749 billion rupiah, based on our forecasts, it’s at 1.30X sales & 1.02X assets with a 6% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 920 billion rupiah. At 15X, this gives a 105% higher target price of 5,258 rupiah.
