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LPCK, only 0.25X assets
Current, target price 925, 1,739 (+88%)
August 6th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales jump
Costs low
1 minute read
Sales jump
- Sales jumped by 74% in the second quarter to 416 billion rupiah which is above our forecast 359 billion rupiah.
- This brings the average quarterly growth to 4%
- We predict average growth of 11% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 627 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2022.
Costs low
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add on cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was -47% in the second quarter & profit jumped to 165 billion rupiah.
- Average quarterly costs are now at -95%.
- We use -71% costs to predict a 176 billion rupiah net profit in the second quarter of 2022.
Cashflow positive again
Balance sheet lower leverage
Value, only 0.25X assets
- Cashflow was positive again 59 billion rupiah with zero investment spending in the second quarter.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is still negative at -176 billion rupiah.
- We use the same 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a positive 146 billion rupiah cashflow in the second quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage
- With positive cashflow, cash increased in the second quarter from 548 to 591 billion rupiah.
- Liabilities also declined from 3,177 to 3,044 billion rupiah so the net cash improved from -2,629 to -2,453 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast positive cashflow & a -56 billion rupiah equity payout, the net cash will improve to -1,926 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Value, only 0.25X assets
- LPCK capital from the last six years improved to -7,893 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- At the current market value of 2,479 billion rupiah, based on our forecasts, it’s at 1.24X sales & only 0.25X assets with a 2% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 583 billion rupiah. At 8 (a 12% yield), this gives a 88% higher target price of 1,739 rupiah.
