Inflation rising again…new highs ahead
March 16, 2024; a simple analysis
US inflation for February did not cause much of a stir this week, as the year-on-year change remained similar to previous reports at 3.2%.
However, the monthly inflation rate was notably higher, at 0.4%, which annualizes to 4.8%.
The commodity markets have been leading inflation indicators, showing signs of a resurgence in inflation. Both gold and bitcoin have recently demonstrated considerable strength.
Even more significant is the price of oil, which, after two years of decline that helped lower overall inflation, is now at $81, up almost 14% from a year ago.
In this new upward cycle, tin appears to be leading, with its price now almost 9% higher than a year ago.
Palm oil lags somewhat behind, with its price still 1.5% lower than last year. However, this represents a much smaller decline compared to the 23% decrease in 2023, and the price has risen by almost 7% this month.
Our view is that inflation is set to increase again, and we anticipate new highs for both commodity prices and USD inflation, potentially reaching into double digits.
Sharpfokus Team
+6287855572666
March 16, 2024; a simple analysis
US inflation for February did not cause much of a stir this week, as the year-on-year change remained similar to previous reports at 3.2%.
However, the monthly inflation rate was notably higher, at 0.4%, which annualizes to 4.8%.
The commodity markets have been leading inflation indicators, showing signs of a resurgence in inflation. Both gold and bitcoin have recently demonstrated considerable strength.
Even more significant is the price of oil, which, after two years of decline that helped lower overall inflation, is now at $81, up almost 14% from a year ago.
In this new upward cycle, tin appears to be leading, with its price now almost 9% higher than a year ago.
Palm oil lags somewhat behind, with its price still 1.5% lower than last year. However, this represents a much smaller decline compared to the 23% decrease in 2023, and the price has risen by almost 7% this month.
Our view is that inflation is set to increase again, and we anticipate new highs for both commodity prices and USD inflation, potentially reaching into double digits.
Sharpfokus Team
+6287855572666