The laggards
January 9th, 2020
1 minute read
Bad news?
The bad news bears. There seems to be bad news everywhere, higher Corona cases, political upheaval, but the markets no longer care. Everything around the world is going back up at least to where it was at the beginning of last year before the collapse. But there’s still some great opportunities, stocks which are lagging but which will catch up.
Stocks, oil, bonds
First, the background. Our JCI index was 6,290 a year ago, now it’s 6,250. The Dow was 29,000 a year ago, now it’s 31,000. Oil was USD59 a year ago, then negative. Now it’s at USD52 & rising. US 10 year yields are the laggard. From 1.76% a year ago, yields fell to 0.5%. Now its 1.1% & rising fast.
GGRM
Everything will go back up, regardless of sentiment. One stock hit by negative sentiment over taxes is GGRM. A year ago the shares were 56,000. The price fell to 32,000 before recovering but then fell again on the tax news. Now the pride is 41,000. No need to worry about tax, GGRM will go back to 55,000 & much higher.
ACST
A year ago ACST was Rp990, then collapse. It has the biggest sales decline of 122 stocks we cover, -86% from a year ago. The share price fell -83% to Rp172 by March. Since then the price increased to Rp452. They’ve done a rights issue to reduce debt & we think sales will rise & have a target price Rp1,642.
LPPF
The biggest laggard of all is LPPF. Business was affected by shutdowns & sales declined by -44% from a year ago. The share price has been decimated. From Rp4,280, a year ago, the price fell to Rp1,160 by March, & lower Rp925 in November. But sales increased & cashflow turned positive in the third quarter & our target is Rp2,652.
1 minute read
Bad news?
The bad news bears. There seems to be bad news everywhere, higher Corona cases, political upheaval, but the markets no longer care. Everything around the world is going back up at least to where it was at the beginning of last year before the collapse. But there’s still some great opportunities, stocks which are lagging but which will catch up.
Stocks, oil, bonds
First, the background. Our JCI index was 6,290 a year ago, now it’s 6,250. The Dow was 29,000 a year ago, now it’s 31,000. Oil was USD59 a year ago, then negative. Now it’s at USD52 & rising. US 10 year yields are the laggard. From 1.76% a year ago, yields fell to 0.5%. Now its 1.1% & rising fast.
GGRM
Everything will go back up, regardless of sentiment. One stock hit by negative sentiment over taxes is GGRM. A year ago the shares were 56,000. The price fell to 32,000 before recovering but then fell again on the tax news. Now the pride is 41,000. No need to worry about tax, GGRM will go back to 55,000 & much higher.
ACST
A year ago ACST was Rp990, then collapse. It has the biggest sales decline of 122 stocks we cover, -86% from a year ago. The share price fell -83% to Rp172 by March. Since then the price increased to Rp452. They’ve done a rights issue to reduce debt & we think sales will rise & have a target price Rp1,642.
LPPF
The biggest laggard of all is LPPF. Business was affected by shutdowns & sales declined by -44% from a year ago. The share price has been decimated. From Rp4,280, a year ago, the price fell to Rp1,160 by March, & lower Rp925 in November. But sales increased & cashflow turned positive in the third quarter & our target is Rp2,652.
