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KLBF, a 4.1% yield
Current, target price Rp1,450, 2,083 (+44%)
May 4th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales, flat
Cashflow, sharply lower
1 minute read
Sales, flat
- Sales were flat in the first quarter at 6,015 billion rupiah, which is 0% different to our forecast.
- This is after a 10% increase in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to 1%.
- We predict average growth of 2% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales to 6,494 billion rupiah by the first quarter of 2022.
Cashflow, sharply lower
- Cashflow was sharply lower at 44 billion rupiah in the first quarter after 1,502 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with higher investment spending.
- Average quarterly cashflow is now at 734 billion rupiah.
- We use lower investment spending of -309 billion rupiah, which with higher sales, gives a slightly lower average quarterly cashflow of 651 billion rupiah in this next 12 months.
Sales flat as forecast, cashflow expected to stay strong which means net cash & a 4.1% yield, higher target price...
Balance sheet, still net cash
Profit, still strong margins
Value, a 4.1% yield
- With negative cashflow, the net cash minus total liabilities was 848 billion rupiah in the first quarter from 920 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter & -949 billion rupiah a year ago.
- With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of -2,807 billion rupiah...
- ...net cash will be 645 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Profit, still strong margins
- Net profit was flat at 724 billion rupiah in the first quarter from 728 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was at -85%.
- We use the same -85% costs, to predict a higher next 12 months profit of 3,119 billion rupiah.
Value, a 4.1% yield
- KLBF cumulative net capital is at 5,647 billion rupiah from the last six years.
- At the current market value of 67,965 billion rupiah, based on forecasts it’s 7.32X capital paid, 2.66X sales, 2.90X assets, 3.44X equity, with a 16% profitability & a 4.1% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 2,604 billion rupiah. At 1.6% with a 0.6X adjustment, gives a 44% higher target price of 2,083 rupiah.
