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KLBF, a 5% yield
Current, target price 1,300, 2,145 (+65%%)
July 30th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales up strongly
Costs, strong margins
1 minute read
Sales up strongly
- Sales increased by 6% in the second quarter to a record 6,355 billion rupiah which is just a tiny bit below our 6,376 billion rupiah forecast.
- Average quarterly growth from the last 12 months is a steady 2%.
- We predict average growth of 2% again in this next 12 months which will bring sales to 6,731 billion rupiah by the second quarter 2022.
Costs, strong margins
- The cash costs ratio of profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was flat at -85% in the second quarter & profit was higher at 788 billion rupiah.
- Average quarterly costs are at -85% too & average profit 726 billion rupiah.
- We use the same -85% costs to predict a 844 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2022.
Cashflow, forecast 3.1 trillion rupiah
Balance sheet, net cash
Value, a 5% yield
- Cashflow was higher at 147 billion rupiah in the second quarter with lower investment spending of -183 billion rupiah but was held back by working capital.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is lower at 623 billion rupiah.
- We use the same -183 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales will give a 826 billion rupiah Cashflow in the second quarter 2022.
Balance sheet, net cash
- With a 1,260 billion rupiah dividend payout, cash declined from 5,324 to 4,604 in the second quarter.
- Liabilities also declined from 4,476 to 4,090 billion rupiah so net cash declined from 848 to 514 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast positive cashflow & assuming a higher equity payout of -2,893 billion rupiah, net cash will be higher at 763 billion rupiah in 12 months.
Value, a 5% yield
- KLBF capital paid from the last six years incensed to 6,246 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- At the current market value 60,930 billion rupiah, based on our forecasts, it’s at 2.4X sales, 2.7X assets with a 5% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 3,142 billion rupiah. At 32X (a 3.1% yield) this gives a 65% higher target price of 2,145 rupiah.
