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KLBF, a 55% higher target price
Current, target price 1260 , 1948 (+55%)
October 25th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales jump again
Costs one point higher
1 minute read
Sales jump again
- Sales jumped again by 6% in the third quarter to 6,728 billion rupiah which is well above our forecast 6,164 billion rupiah.
- This brings the average quarterly growth to 5%
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 7,715 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs one point higher
- The cash cost ratio was one point higher at -86% in the third quarter & profit was higher at 813 billion rupiah.
- Cashflow costs are the same at -86%,
- We use the same -86% costs to predict a 953 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow jumps 8X
Balance sheet, higher cash
Value, a 55% higher target price
- Cashflow increased 8X to 1,251 billion rupiah even with higher investment spending of -259 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Average quarterly Cashflow has now improved to 736 billion rupiah.
- We use the same -259 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 840 billion rupiah cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, higher cash
- Cash jumped from 4,604 to 5,647 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased from 4,090 to 4,275 billion rupiah so net cash jumped from 514 to 1,372 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -3,217 billion rupiah equity payout, net cash will be 1,278 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Value, a 55% higher target price
- KLBF capital from the last six years increased to 6,402 billion rupiah in the third quarter & will be 10,412 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
- At the current market value of 68,670 billion rupiah, based on our forecasts, it’s at 2.9X assets with a 6.0 years payback & a 5% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 3,123 billion rupiah which is a 22X valuation. At a 34X valuation gives a 55% higher target price of 1,948 rupiah.
