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JSKY, better third quarter
🎯 ⛽️ 📈 Rp791
Last 12-month cashflow -Rp 40 billion ⬇️
December 31st, 2020
1 minute read
Sales
Third quarter sales jumped +164% from the previous quarter, after a -69% decline in the second. At Rp 73 billion, sales were entirely from ‘solar systems’ which at Rp 78 billion were up from Rp 2 billion in the second quarter & Rp 24 billion a year ago. We forecast sales to reach Rp 114 billion by third quarter 2021.
Cashflow
Excluding working capital, cashflow was back to a positive +Rp 8 billion in the third quarter & is +Rp 9 billion for nine months. Investment spending has returned, although it’s a small Rp 2 billion per quarter. We use this in our forecast,which together with higher sales, gives a forecast average quarterly cashflow +Rp 16 billion this next 12 months.
1 minute read
Sales
Third quarter sales jumped +164% from the previous quarter, after a -69% decline in the second. At Rp 73 billion, sales were entirely from ‘solar systems’ which at Rp 78 billion were up from Rp 2 billion in the second quarter & Rp 24 billion a year ago. We forecast sales to reach Rp 114 billion by third quarter 2021.
Cashflow
Excluding working capital, cashflow was back to a positive +Rp 8 billion in the third quarter & is +Rp 9 billion for nine months. Investment spending has returned, although it’s a small Rp 2 billion per quarter. We use this in our forecast,which together with higher sales, gives a forecast average quarterly cashflow +Rp 16 billion this next 12 months.
Balance sheet
With some negative working capital, net debt was higher in the third quarter at Rp 155 billion from Rp 151 billion in the second, but lower than Rp 203 billion a year ago. With our forecast positive cashflow & assuming a Rp 20 billion dividend payment, net debt will be down to Rp 110 billion in 12 months time.
Profit
Net profit jumped with higher sales to Rp 11 billion in the third quarter from break even in the second. The cash costs ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales dropped sharply to 82%. We use the same 82% to predict a much higher next 12 months net profit of Rp 65 billion.
Value
JSKY has paid out net Rp 29 billion of capital in the last four years. At the current market value of Rp 472 billion, it’s 1.18X sales, 0.88X assets, 1.68X equity with a profitability of 23% & a yield of 4.1%. Our cashflow forecast is Rp 64 billion. At 1.6% with a 0.4X adjustment gives a higher target price, Rp791.
With some negative working capital, net debt was higher in the third quarter at Rp 155 billion from Rp 151 billion in the second, but lower than Rp 203 billion a year ago. With our forecast positive cashflow & assuming a Rp 20 billion dividend payment, net debt will be down to Rp 110 billion in 12 months time.
Profit
Net profit jumped with higher sales to Rp 11 billion in the third quarter from break even in the second. The cash costs ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales dropped sharply to 82%. We use the same 82% to predict a much higher next 12 months net profit of Rp 65 billion.
Value
JSKY has paid out net Rp 29 billion of capital in the last four years. At the current market value of Rp 472 billion, it’s 1.18X sales, 0.88X assets, 1.68X equity with a profitability of 23% & a yield of 4.1%. Our cashflow forecast is Rp 64 billion. At 1.6% with a 0.4X adjustment gives a higher target price, Rp791.