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JSKY, a 74% higher target price
Current 112 Target 195 +74%
December 1st 2021
1 minute read
Sales declined-12%
Costs 1 point higher, profit at break even
Cashflow, a small positive
Balance sheet lower leverage
Valuation, a 74% higher target price
1 minute read
Sales declined-12%
- Sales declined -12% in the third quarter to 28 billion rupiah vs our 35 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 78% growth.
- We predict average growth of 21% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 58 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs 1 point higher, profit at break even
- The cash cost ratio was 1 point higher at -93% in the third quarter giving a 0 billion rupiah net profit.
- The Cashflow cost ratio is at -115% now.
- We use the previous -92% cost ratio to predict a 3.2 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow, a small positive
- Free cashflow was a small positive 1.4 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 0 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is also positive at 0.9 billion rupiah now.
- We assume a continued 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a higher 4.9 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage
- Cash increased from 0 to 1 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined from 235 to 221 billion rupiah so net cash improved from -235 to -220 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -204 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, a 74% higher target price
- JSKY capital from the last 19 quarters was slightly higher at 32.5 billion rupiah in the third quarter & will be 49 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 233 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.52 X assets with a 29 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12 month cashflow forecast is 16 billion rupiah which means an 14 X valuation. A 25 X valuation gives a 74% higher target price of 195 rupiah.
