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JSKY, Sales jump back
Current, target price 140, 170 (+22%)
July 22nd, 2021
1 minute read
Sales jump back
Costs below 100%
1 minute read
Sales jump back
- Sales jumped by 453% in the first quarter back to 57 billion rupiah but still below our previous forecast 69 billion rupiah.
- This brings the average quarterly growth to 116%!
- We predict average growth of 10% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 84 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2022.
Costs below 100%
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales came down to -96% in the first quarter & profit was 0.5 billion rupiah.
- Average quarterly costs are now at -113%.
- We use the latest -96% costs to predict a 1.5 billion rupiah net profit in the first quarter of 2022.
Cashflow positive on investment gains
Balance sheet, lower leverage
Value, only 0.59X assets
- Cashflow was up to 3.6 billion rupiah with investment gains of 11.2 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Average quarterly Cashflow has now improved to 0.2 billion rupiah.
- We use 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 3.1 billion rupiah cashflow in the first quarter 2022.
Balance sheet, lower leverage
- With positive cashflow, cash increased from 0.4 to 3.0 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased slightly from 263 to 265 billion rupiah so net cash improved from -262.6 to -262.0 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming there’s a small -1.3 billion rupiah equity payout, net cash will improve to -252 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Value, only 0.59X assets
- JSKY capital from the last four years improved to 26.9 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- At the current market value of 285 billion rupiah, based on our forecasts, it’s at 0.97X sales & 0.59X assets with a 0.5% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 11 billion rupiah. At 32 (3% yield), this gives a 22% higher target price of 170 rupiah.
