ITMG, a 5.3% yield
Target price Rp55,172
Last 12-month cashflow +USD 128 million
February 22nd,, 2021
1 minute read
1 minute read
- After eight quarters of declining sales, the fourth quarter was +43% to USD 313 million. That’s 6% ahead of our forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average growth to -3% from -14% in the third quarter.
- We predict average quarterly growth of +16% in this next 12 months & sales to rise to USD 497 million by the fourth quarter 2021.
- Despite higher sales, cashflow was lower in the fourth quarter at USD 4 million from USD 12 million in the third quarter. Avenger quarterly Cashflow is at USD 32 million.
- We assume investment spending stays low at USD 11 million, which with higher sales...
- ...gives a higher average quarterly free Cashflow of USD 58 million in this next 12 months.
Finally sales increase, expecting fast growth, strong cashflow, a 5.3% yield, higher share price ...
- The balance sheet net cash of cash minus total liabilities was at -USD 82 million in the fourth quarter, from -USD 107 million in the third quarter, -USD 166 million a year ago.
- With our forecast for higher cashflow ahead & a dividend payout of USD 53 million..:
- ...net cash will turn POSITIVE +USD 71 million in 12 months time.
- The fourth quarter had a net loss -USD 1 million after a +USD 10 million profit in the third quarter on derivative losses.
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was higher at 84%.
- We use the average 82% costs to predict a higher next 12 months profit, USD 76 million.
- ITMG has paid out capital of USD. 767 million in the last five years.
- At the current market value, USD 1 billion , it’s 1.3X capital paid, 0.6X sales, 0.9X assets, 1.1X equity with an 8.6% profitability & a 5.3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is USD 230 million. At 1.6% with a 0.3X adjustment, gives a higher target price Rp55,172.