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IPTV, sales slump, a -6% lower target price
Current 214 Target 201 -6%
December 8th 2021
1 minute read
Sales surprisingly slumped -17%
Costs 2 points higher but profit up
Cashflow negative again with higher investment, to turn positive
Balance sheet, lower leverage with new equity
Valuation, more capital raised, a -6% lower target price
1 minute read
Sales surprisingly slumped -17%
- Sales surprisingly slipped -17% in the third quarter to 874 billion rupiah vs our 1,123 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to -2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,048 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs 2 points higher but profit up
- The cash cost ratio was 2 points higher at -71% in the third quarter nut lower non cash costs gave a higher 93 billion rupiah net profit.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -68% now.
- We use the -68% cost ratio to predict a higher 117 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow negative again with higher investment, to turn positive
- Free cashflow was negative again -144 billion rupiah in the third quarter with higher spending -484 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -318 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -240 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 101 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, lower leverage with new equity
- Cash increased from 32 to 101 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased from 3,626 to 3,658 billion rupiah so net cash improved from -3,594 to -3,557 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -122 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -3,340 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, more capital raised, a -6% lower target price
- IPTV capital from the last 15 quarters worsened to -2,984 billion rupiah in the third quarter with a -64 billion rupiah liabilities payment & 277 billion new equity but will be -2,645 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 9,030 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.77 X assets with a 34 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our 12 month cashflow forecast is 339 billion rupiah which means an 27 X valuation. A 25 X valuation gives a -6% lower target price of 201 rupiah.
