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INKP, below asset value
🎯 📝 📈 Rp25,890
Last 12-month cashflow +USD 546 million ⬇️
January 11th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales
Sales improved slightly in the third quarter, growing by +1% to USD 708 million, after -10% in the second quarter. The 12 months average quarterly growth is -5%. Exports increased +4% while smaller domestic sales declined -4%. We expected average quarterly growth to pick up to +4% & sales to rise to USD 825 million by the third quarter 2021.
Cashflow
Cashflow was strong in the third quarter, USD 216 million as cash receipts were higher than sales, USD 735 million & investment cashflow was positive. 12 month average cashflow is USD 137 million. We expect small quarterly investment spending of USD 3 million which with higher sales gives an average quarterly cashflow of USD 135 million this next 12 months.
1 minute read
Sales
Sales improved slightly in the third quarter, growing by +1% to USD 708 million, after -10% in the second quarter. The 12 months average quarterly growth is -5%. Exports increased +4% while smaller domestic sales declined -4%. We expected average quarterly growth to pick up to +4% & sales to rise to USD 825 million by the third quarter 2021.
Cashflow
Cashflow was strong in the third quarter, USD 216 million as cash receipts were higher than sales, USD 735 million & investment cashflow was positive. 12 month average cashflow is USD 137 million. We expect small quarterly investment spending of USD 3 million which with higher sales gives an average quarterly cashflow of USD 135 million this next 12 months.
Sales growth will turn positive, cashflow is strong on low investment spending, less than asset value, higher target price...
Balance sheet
With positive cashflow, the net cash position of cash minus liabilities improved to -USD 3.17 billion in the third quarter, from USD 3.37 billion in the second quarter & USD 3.8 billion a year ago. With our forecast positive cashflow & a dividend payment of USD 84 million, the net cash will be -USD 2.72 billion in 12 months time.
Profit
Net profit was also higher to USD 84 million in the third quarter from USD 23 million in the second quarter. The cash cost ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was 78%. We use the higher recent avenge 83% costs to predict a lower next 12 months profit of USD 281 million.
Value
INKP has paid a cumulative net capital USD 641 million in the last five years. At the current market value USD 4.84 billion, it’s 7.5X capital paid, 1.5X sales, 0.6X assets, 1.08X equity with a 6.3% profitability & a 1.7% yield. Our cashflow forecast is USD 540 million. At 1.6% with a 0.3X adjustment, gives a higher target price Rp25,890.
With positive cashflow, the net cash position of cash minus liabilities improved to -USD 3.17 billion in the third quarter, from USD 3.37 billion in the second quarter & USD 3.8 billion a year ago. With our forecast positive cashflow & a dividend payment of USD 84 million, the net cash will be -USD 2.72 billion in 12 months time.
Profit
Net profit was also higher to USD 84 million in the third quarter from USD 23 million in the second quarter. The cash cost ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was 78%. We use the higher recent avenge 83% costs to predict a lower next 12 months profit of USD 281 million.
Value
INKP has paid a cumulative net capital USD 641 million in the last five years. At the current market value USD 4.84 billion, it’s 7.5X capital paid, 1.5X sales, 0.6X assets, 1.08X equity with a 6.3% profitability & a 1.7% yield. Our cashflow forecast is USD 540 million. At 1.6% with a 0.3X adjustment, gives a higher target price Rp25,890.
