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INDY, a 220% higher target price
Current 1,565 Target 5,007 +220%
December 30th 2021
1 minute read
Sales grew 23%, heading to 1 billion dollars
Costs up 9 points, profit down
Cashflow tripled!
Balance sheet higher leverage
Valuation, capital to turn positive, cheap, a 220% higher target price
1 minute read
Sales grew 23%, heading to 1 billion dollars
- Sales grew 23% in the third quarter to 868 million dollars vs our 741 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 21% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,065 million dollars in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs up 9 points, profit down
- The cash cost ratio went from -88% to -97% profit from 32 to -37 million dollars in the third quarter.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -87% now.
- We use lower -92% cost ratio to predict a 18 million dollars profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow tripled!
- Free cashflow tripled from 65 to 189 million dollars in the third quarter with -49 million dollars investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 64 million dollars now.
- We assume lower -14 million dollars investment spending (based on capex) which with higher sales gives a 68 million dollars Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet higher leverage
- Cash increased 615 to 712 million dollars in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 2,708 to 2,830 million dollars so net cash worsened slightly -2,093 to -2,118 million dollars
- With our forecast cashflow & a -10 million dollars equity payout -223 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -1,895 million dollars in 12 months time.
Valuation, capital to turn positive, cheap, a 220% higher target price
- INDY capital from the last 23 quarters improved -195 to -139 million dollars in the third quarter with -51 liabilities -5 million dollars equity payments & will turn positive 94 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 581 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s cheap at 0.17 X assets with a 13 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 232 million dollars which means an 3 X valuation. A 8 X valuation gives a 220% higher target price of 5,007 rupiah.
