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INDY, sales to ride
🎯 ⛏ 📈 Rp2,392
Last 12-month cashflow -USD 60 million ⬇️
January 15th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales
Sales growth has been negative the last three quarters & was a slightly improved -16% in the third quarter from -24% in the second. We expect growth to turn positive again with an average of +14% a quarter in this next 12 months & sales rising from USD 410 million now to USD 673 million by the third quarter 2021.
Cashflow
Cashflow was back to a positive +USD 12 million in the third quarter while the last 12 months average is at -USD 15 million. We expect investment spending to remain low at the average USD 16 million a quarter, which with higher sales gives a positive average quarterly free cashflow of +USD 7 million in this next 12 months .
1 minute read
Sales
Sales growth has been negative the last three quarters & was a slightly improved -16% in the third quarter from -24% in the second. We expect growth to turn positive again with an average of +14% a quarter in this next 12 months & sales rising from USD 410 million now to USD 673 million by the third quarter 2021.
Cashflow
Cashflow was back to a positive +USD 12 million in the third quarter while the last 12 months average is at -USD 15 million. We expect investment spending to remain low at the average USD 16 million a quarter, which with higher sales gives a positive average quarterly free cashflow of +USD 7 million in this next 12 months .
Sales to rise on higher energy prices, cashflow to turn positive, extremely cheap at 0.3X assets, higher target price...
Balance sheet
The 2017 acquisition pushed net cash minus liabilities to -USD 1.9 billion. The leverage was still USD 1.92 billion as of the third quarter, slightly better than -USD 2 billion a year ago. With our forecast for some positive free cashflow & no dividend payout, the net cash will be slightly lower at -USD 1.89 billion in 12 months time.
Profit
Net profit was a loss of -USD 29 million in the third quarter from a +USD 2 million profit in the the second. The cash costs ratio of net profit add depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was 99%. We use 96% as sales rise to predict a better next 12 months net loss of -USD 35 million.
Value
INDY has raised a net USD 113 million of capital in the last five years. At the current market value of USD 688 million, it’s cheap, only 0.3X sales, 0.2X assets, 0.8X equity with no profitability & no yield yet. Our cashflow forecast is +USD 28 million. At 1.6% with a 0.5X adjustment gives a higher target price of Rp2,391.
The 2017 acquisition pushed net cash minus liabilities to -USD 1.9 billion. The leverage was still USD 1.92 billion as of the third quarter, slightly better than -USD 2 billion a year ago. With our forecast for some positive free cashflow & no dividend payout, the net cash will be slightly lower at -USD 1.89 billion in 12 months time.
Profit
Net profit was a loss of -USD 29 million in the third quarter from a +USD 2 million profit in the the second. The cash costs ratio of net profit add depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was 99%. We use 96% as sales rise to predict a better next 12 months net loss of -USD 35 million.
Value
INDY has raised a net USD 113 million of capital in the last five years. At the current market value of USD 688 million, it’s cheap, only 0.3X sales, 0.2X assets, 0.8X equity with no profitability & no yield yet. Our cashflow forecast is +USD 28 million. At 1.6% with a 0.5X adjustment gives a higher target price of Rp2,391.
