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INDY, only 0.16X assets
Current, target price Rp1,425, 4,874 (+242%)

May 6th, 2021
1 minute read

Sales, up again
  • Sales increased by 8% in the first quarter to 582 million dollars, which is +9% compared to our forecast.
  • This is after a 31% increase in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to 0%.
  • We predict average growth of 7% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales back to 740 million dollars by the first quarter of 2022.

Cashflow, negative again
  • Cashflow was negative -25 million dollars in the first quarter after positive 29 million dollars in the fourth quarter on higher investment spending.
  • Average quarterly cashflow is now negative -11 million dollars.
  • We use lower investment spending of -38 million dollars, which with higher sales, gives a higher average quarterly cashflow of 30 million dollars in this next 12 months.

Sales up again, margins higher, cashflow negative on higher investment, expecting positive cashflow, only 0.16X assets, a much higher target price...

Balance sheet, higher leverage
  • With negative cashflow, the net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -2,121 million dollars in the first quarter from -1,976 million dollars in the fourth quarter & -1,941 million dollars a year ago.
  • With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of -9 million dollars...
  • ...net cash will be -2,010 million dollars in 12 months time.

Profit, better margins
  • Net profit was a lesser negative -3 million dollars in the first quarter from -58 million dollars in the fourth quarter....
  • ... as the cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was down to -90%.
  • We use the same -90% costs, to predict a positive next 12 months profit of 28 million dollars.

Value, only 0.16X assets
  • INDY cumulative net capital is at -268 million dollars from the last five years.
  • At the current market value of 545 million dollars, based on forecasts it’s only 0.20X sales, 0.16X assets, 0.62X equity, with a 3.2% profitability & a 1.6% yield.
  • Our free cashflow forecast is 119 million dollars. At 1.6% with a large 0.25 adjustment, gives a 242% higher target price of rupiah.