## INDR, at 2X, a 157% higher target price

Current 4,690 Target 12,064 .+157%

November 18th 2021

1 minute read

Sales

Costs 5 points higher

Cashflow higher cashflow ahead

Balance sheet

Valuation, 2X, a 157% higher target price

1 minute read

Sales

- Sales jumped 12% in the third quarter to 227 million dollars vs our 198 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 11% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in the next 12 months to bring sales to 284 million dollars in the third quarter of 2022.

Costs 5 points higher

- The cash cost ratio was 5 points higher at -90% in the third quarter giving a lower 15 million dollars net profit.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -85% now.
- We use the average -85% cost ratio to predict a 33 million dollars profit in the third quarter of 2022.

Cashflow higher cashflow ahead

- Free cashflow was negative -5 million dollars in the third quarter with working capital & -9 million dollars investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 10 million dollars now.
- We assume -10 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives a 32 million dollars Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.

Balance sheet

- Cash declined from 53 to 44 million dollars in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased slightly from 411 to 413 million dollars so net cash worsened from -358 to -369 million dollars.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -24 million dollars equity payout net cash will be -280 million dollars in 12 months time.

Valuation, 2X, a 157% higher target price

- INDR capital from the last 23 quarters increased to 253 million dollars in the third quarter with a -9 million dollars liabilities payment & will be 354 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 219 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.21 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 11% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 113 million dollars which means an 2 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 157% higher target price of 12,064 rupiah.